Sergey Karaganov — Russia’s new foreign policy, the Putin Doctrine

This is important. It is a long read but it shows that the Russian intelligentsia has been doing its homework. And, yes, Vladimir Putin belongs to the intelligentsia. 

The document is not for non-Russians to agree with or disagree with but to understand, difficult as they may be for people whose world view, cognitive framework, and cognitive-affective bias is so far removed from that of the Russian world, which more extensive than Russian nationals. But it should be a wake-up call to the West — the game has changed forever, and there is no returning to the past.

Western "experts" are so far removed from reality that they cannot comprehend Putin—or Russia, for that matter, which they are supposed to be experts in. "Putin" has become a catchword for Russia and all things Russian. They call Putin himself "psychotic," projecting their own condition on him. This does not bode well going forward, given nuclear weapons and MAD.

The current discussion in the West is over Ukraine. However, Ukraine is being used as a distraction from Russia's "non-ultimatum" that is an ultimatum about security guarantees. Ukraine is a sideshow in the larger picture. Russia knows this and is not going to let it get in the way of driving home its point. An adequate security guarantee, or else, with the "or else" not spelled out, but rather implied. 

The situation in Ukraine is just the first step in Russia bringing to bear a "military-technical" solution in the absence of real work on fashioning a new security architecture that is not based on the US-imposed "rules-based order." Russia prepared to go to war over this now, being convinced that the US is preparing to go to war later. 

Russia's message: Europeans should wake up to the danger the US is putting them in. Those countries involved in confronting Russia will be targeted. War will not be fought on Russian soil this time around. The continental US will also be hit. The US can no longer rely on its "island" status as a a geographic "security guarantee."

The US notion that it can pull another Nixon-Kissinger and peel China away from Russia is delusional, especially when also confronting China simultaneously. (What these people thinking anyway?) . The US and its allies face a two-front war against two land powers, involving a land war in Asia to resolve with boot on the ground. Winning a war without putting boots on the ground is also delusional — unless it goes nuclear, in which case, goodbye.

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Sergey Karaganov: Russia’s new foreign policy, the Putin Doctrine

Professor Sergey Karaganov, honorary chairman of Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, and academic supervisor at the School of International Economics and Foreign Affairs Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Moscow