In summary, 2022 is set to be an inflationary year no matter what happens. There is also some risk that inflation could get really out of control....Macrocosm
How reliable is the Atlanta sticky/flexi price framework? And what does it predict about future inflation?
Eurodollars, Roubles, Inflation
ReplyDeletehttps://the-blindspot.com/in-the-blind-spot-on-tuesday-eurodollars-roubles-inflation/
The Russian Rouble Get Out Clause
https://new-wayland.com/blog/rouble-get-out-clause/
What that means is that Russia has the legal right to pay coupons and redemptions in Roubles to investors on bonds issued after 2018. There can’t even be a technical default on these.
For those where there could be a technical default, the envisaged process is farcical. It goes roughly like this:
Russia issues an instruction to pay to its correspondent bank in the US. The correspondent bank refuses the request to comply with sanctions. The bond holder declares a default and claims on their insurance. The insurance company, after paying out and marking up premiums elsewhere to compensate, then goes to court and has the Russian assets seized - which will be the bank deposit Russia was going to pay the bond holder with anyway.
A nice little earner for corporate lawyers and insurance firms.