What is next week? Answer: “Fed!”…. Another rate increase and start of the QT… This is the Democrat plan… good luck you guys…
Nancy Pelosi: the economy has "improved, but inflation has gone up."
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) June 9, 2022
She says Democrats will get around to addressing it "next week." pic.twitter.com/n6LydVtZhK
They are crazy it is like Alice in Wonderland.
ReplyDeleteOffline crypto, inflation, models
https://the-blindspot.com/in-the-blind-spot-offline-crypto-inflation-models/
" I did, however, struggle with how the tech might solve for the duality of being able to reliably transfer a digital bearer asset physically (because the recipient can be sure the note is endowed with digital value) or to transfer the embedded value digitally. If the note had to be scanned before exchange to ensure the embedded value had not been spent, this would create too much of a friction for users. The people behind off-line bitcoin, however, have solved this problem by making sure that the only way you can digitally transfer the crypto value, is by physically breaking the note.
This is a wonderfully low-tech analogue solution to a high-tech digital problem that harks back to the days of coupon-bearing bonds. Mother nature is doing the hard work once again. And I have to say, I think this may be a real game changer for bitcoin — especially in terms of cost of transaction. Even more importantly, having a physical cash unit backed by bitcoin that can be issued by anyone who has the inclination (and funds) to print out the notes has the potential to re-establish neutral money.
The question regulators will soon be asking, however, is who in the world has the inclination to fund such print runs? The answer, I suspect, are those who already have to pay x amount on the dollar to get their otherwise immobilised cash mobilised. You see the problem we may be introducing.
The other question worth asking, however, is whether the likes of De La Rue, one of the world’s most established money printers, will get in on the offline crypto printing game. Or might governments themselves be inclined to adopt such technology? If they’re serious about creating public digital cash goods, they should. It’s clever. It is also somewhat evocative of what Rohan Grey and his network are trying to popularise with their Ecash Act. "
Jack Dorsey is working on what you’re talking about in his Square/Block thing..,
ReplyDeleteEverything is changing from the world we all knew.
ReplyDeleteGlad I'm over 50 and not 18. Only worry is Palanti is looking to asset strip the NHS then rent seek off it.
I wonder if the bastards ever get round to privatizing the NHS if that you are over a certain age you won't have to pay?
How will they get round their own problems from the myths they have created. For example when people say why should I have to pay for healthcare as I have paid into the NHS all my life.
It still won't make them get their fat arses off their sofas and fight to keep free healthcare alive.
With so many things changing it is Amazing so little new consumer tech has been created in the last 15 years.
iPhone: 15 years
Twitter: 16 years
YouTube: 17 years
Facebook: 18 years
Gmail: 18 years
Xbox: 21 years
Nokia 3310: 22 years
BlackBerry: 23 years
Google: 24 years
Netflix: 24 years
Game Boy: 33 years
Macintosh: 38 years
Walkman: 43 years
Matt which is the best report to get the most up to date US foreign reserves data from ?
ReplyDeleteYou mean how much US has of other nations currency balances?
ReplyDeleteUSD currently string due to getting higher terms of trade from sales of US oil and gas… food…
ReplyDeleteSame with Ruble, Russia getting some oil and gas out but at much higher prices… ruble up…
Forex rate a composite index of current terms of trade..
MMT: “it’s about price not quantity…”
You seem to be interested in quantity…
ReplyDeleteWhere do they get this data from?
ReplyDeletehttps://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/foreign-exchange-reserves
Why in some places data is released weekly but this is quarterly ?
Biggest scam on planet earth is OPEC+
ReplyDeleteThe charts are not lying there is an inverse relationship with the currency.
ReplyDeleteThe reserves proceed the action.
Can it be the case that the price action that you used to go on about that you thought drove FX changes are not captured by the quantity ?
Depending on the price action the reserves move up or down ?
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_table1popup.htm
ReplyDelete“ Since 1963, the Federal Reserve has occasionally agreed to warehouse foreign currency for the Treasury. In such transactions, the Federal Reserve takes the foreign currency from the Treasury in return for dollars provided to the Treasury. The Federal Reserve makes a spot purchase of the currency and protects the value of those currencies purchased by simultaneously selling the same amount of currencies forward at the same price to the Treasury.
When the Federal Reserve warehouses foreign currencies for the Treasury, both "other Federal Reserve assets" and "U.S. Treasury, general account" increase in value at the time of the spot transaction. Both accounts decline when the forward transaction is completed or when currencies are withdrawn from the warehousing arrangement prior to maturity.”
Fed might own the foreign currency accounts on behalf of Treasury…
ReplyDeleteBut again this is ex post accounting… to front run forex you have to predict what the financial terms of trade are going to do…
Who knew Russia was going to do what they are doing and who knew the G-7 policy response?
If you knew Russia was going to invade and then G-7 would sanction BUT STIIL let some small amounts of Russia oil and gas out then you could have went bullish ruble..,
ReplyDeleteUS
ReplyDeletehttps://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-foreign-exchange-reserves@2x.png?s=unitedstaforexcres&v=202205281005V20220312&url2=/united-states/currency
China
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/china-foreign-exchange-reserves@2x.png?s=chinaforexcres&v=202206070835V20220312&url2=/china/currency
Eurozone
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/euro-area-foreign-exchange-reserves@2x.png?s=emuevolvforexcres&v=202205211001V20220312&url2=/euro-area/currency
Japan
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/japan-foreign-exchange-reserves@2x.png?s=japanforexcres&v=202206062350V20220312&url2=/japan/currency
Inverse relationships?
I don't really know Matt.
ReplyDeleteI want to find out why the inverse relationship.
I am not going to throw money at it as a hobby I want to track the best most up to date US foreign exchange reserves figures and watch what effect they have on the $.
G-7 policy response causing a short term shortage of oil and gas…
ReplyDeleteDemocrat plan is for Fed to raise interest rates and start the QT to get oil prices down…
And now they have goaded the ECB to do the same thing..,
Democrats think if they can get their G-7 CBs to increase rates and do QT then this will fix Putins wagon..,
This is how they think they are going to fuck Russia,,,
And you guys vote Democrat.. so that’s hard to understand..,
“ The reserves proceed the action.”
ReplyDeleteThat might just be a reporting delay…
“ inverse relationship.”
ReplyDeleteIt is inverse… if banks demand MORE EUR for 1 USD then that means EUR goes down…
Banks are the price setters.,,
EZ importing more US oil and gas at much higher prices in USD terms.., EUR goes down..,
ReplyDeleteI don't want to get into a big long debate about it.
ReplyDeleteWhat's right what's wrong.
It is the charts that I'm interested in and want to track the inverse relationship.
All I'm looking for are the best most frequent data release for US foreign exchange reserves.
That produces this chart
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/foreign-exchange-reserves
That is all I need for my hobby.
EZ banks have fixed capital in EUR so they CANT finance oil and gas at higher prices in EUR so they have to adjust the exchange rate to not violate leverage ratio IN EUR… when faced with higher import prices in USD terms..,
ReplyDelete" That might just be a reporting delay…"
ReplyDeleteLet me find out
:)
Where can I find them?
If the reserves proceed the action I'm not really that bothered that much if it is a reporting delay or not.
ReplyDeleteBecause if the inverse relationship holds that chart on trading economics is all I would ever need.
Maybe that quarterly chart from trading economics is all I need to track it because that chart proceeds the action.
If you can point me in the right direction then pleasantly me know. If not I will use the quarterly chart and see how I get on.
Just by using the Quarterly data release chart
ReplyDeletehttps://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-foreign-exchange-reserves@2x.png?s=unitedstaforexcres&v=202205281005V20220312&url2=/united-states/currency
Using Mike's strategy I would have made an absolute fortune over the last 5 years.
What do I mean by Mike's strategy?
1. Clear as day the quarterly reserves data proceeds the action on the quarterly data chart.
2. As you have shown there IS an invert relationship and you have explained why.
3. Once you get the Quarterly data you can identify a trend are the reserves going up or down. Because it proceeds the action you have a little bit of time to identify the trend.
4. Let's say the trend on reserves are going up because of the inverse relationship the $ will go down.
5. Using Mike's strategy because you know the $ is going to go down you sell the rallies in the $.
6. Let's say the trend on reserves are going down because of the inverse relationship you know the $ will go up.
7. Using Mike's strategy because you know the $ is going to go up you buy the dips in the $.
8. By buying the dips and selling the rallies depending on what the reserves are doing you smooth out the volatility in between.
That's what I am thinking and going to test. If it works I may through some money at it.
* throw *
ReplyDeleteMatt why do you think the oil and gas is a short term shortage? Plenty of people believe we going to $150+ oil
ReplyDeleteG-7 sanctions on Russian oil and gas created a short term supply disruption on Russian supply….
ReplyDeleteAlso, US Trump admin pre Biden production 13.2M bpd now 11.9M bpd under Biden climate nutters who think the icebergs are all going to melt and the water is going to come up…
So Dems think if they just get the Fed to handle the figurative Art Degree “inflation!” via Art Degree monetarism these other Dem policies effecting the real production won’t matter…
Thing is if the QT ends up removing risk free reserve assets from depositories which then allows more normal rates of credit provision to key petroleum and automotive sectors prices there may come down and they’ll think “it worked!”… due to the corellation..
Russia oil and gas will eventually go to China or India or someplace once they figure it out…
ReplyDeleteIn a transition state now.. but US still needs to get another 1M+ per day production increase here domestically… keep exports open so US can act as global swing producer again like under Trump…
"which then allows more normal rates of credit provision to key petroleum and automotive sectors"
ReplyDeleteare there any signs that petroleum sectors aren't getting the credit they need for supply expansion? Maybe it's more ESG related that's causing the supply constraint. That and Covid (labour and supply chain) of course. Don't think QT will really help with those issues.
“ Maybe it's more ESG related”
ReplyDeleteYes could be … probably some of that for sure …,but also could be a lack of credit provision due to the QE…
Pre Covid early 2020 reserves at depositories like 1.75T now at 3.3T having been iirc like 4T before RRP policy now RRP over 2T…
iow ESG might be preventing new production but what about just returning previously permitted production to previous levels ?
What is preventing that?
https://www.eenews.net/articles/texas-threatens-to-hit-esg-firms-over-fossil-fuel-boycott/
ReplyDeleteTexas Comptroller Glenn Hegar yesterday sent letters to 19 financial companies asking them to “clarify their fossil fuel investment policies and procedures” and to list any of their mutual funds or exchange-traded funds that limit fossil fuel investments.
Hegar gave the companies 60 days to respond — extending a process that had previously been expected to wrap up in March.
BlackRock officials earlier this year met with Texas leaders and outlined the firm’s multibillion-dollar oil and gas investments (Climatewire, Feb. 24). But Republicans have been unswayed, pointing to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s continued outspokenness on cutting emissions.
iow credit might not be generally available due to the QE but since nobody understands how this works (they Art Degree morons 99.9%who th8nk “banks lend out the reserves!” so they wouldn’t suspect this) … they just reflexively blame the deranged climate nutters… it’s way easier than figuring out what is really going on technically..…
ReplyDeletewhich then allows more normal rates of credit provision to key petroleum and automotive sectors" are there any signs that petroleum sectors aren't getting the credit they need for supply expansion? Maybe it's more ESG related
ReplyDeleteThis is what I am hearing.