History shows that the movements to civil and/or international wars that change the domestic and world orders take place via a progression of stages that transpire in big cycles that have occurred for logical reasons throughout history. I believe that reviewing how the typical Big Cycle works, what stage we are in, and what typically comes next is now especially important. That is because the evidence points to us being on the brink of civil and/or international war (in my book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, I describe this as late Stage 5, on the brink of Stage 6) and because without understanding how these cycles transpire, we will simply observe events in the news without being adequately prepared for them or able to prevent them.
To be clear, when I say that I believe we are on the brink of civil and/or international war, I am not saying that we will necessarily go into them or that, if we do, it will happen very soon. What I am saying is that the different sides in domestic and international conflicts are preparing for war and if events are allowed to progress as they typically do, there is a dangerously high probability of us being in at least one of these wars if not both in about five years, give or take about three (with the highest risk point being in 2025-26).
While the part of the cycle we are now in has not occurred before in our lifetimes, it has occurred many times before, most recently in 1930-45. For that reason, I believe that now is the time to reflect on how the cyclical cause/effect relationships lead to the progression of events that makes up the Big Cycle, and what we should do individually and collectively to deal with these progressing realities.…
Principled Perspectives (at LinkedIn)
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