Last Friday (December 2, 2022), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their latest labour market data – Employment Situation Summary – November 2022 – which suggested that the US labour market showed signs of slowing further, with payroll employment growing by just 263,000 net jobs. The labour force measure showed employment and labour force growth turning negative as the participation edged down. The result was that the official unemployment rate remained largely unchanged – with both the demand and supply side falling in proportion. The quit rate is stable which suggests that the US labour market is in a sort of holding pattern – slowing weakening but not consistent with the Federal Reserve type narratives. There are also no fundamental wage pressures emerging at present to drive any further inflation spikes. Wages growth appears to be reactive to inflation rather than propelling it. Wages growth appears to be reactive to inflation rather than propelling it. The claim that wage pressures are now pushing inflation is untenable given the data.…
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
US labour market is a sort of holding pattern – declining but slowly
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia
US labour market is a sort of holding pattern – declining but slowly
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia
Now it's a holding pattern? Last month he said there was clear evidence it was declining.
ReplyDeletethe rate increases only make retirement more possible for many
ReplyDeleteAs usual, Matt has it exactly backwards.
Higher prices make retirement less possible for many.
A Canadian headline:
Posthaste: Anxious Canadians putting retirement on hold as inflation makes everything more expensive
60% have delayed their retirement start date, survey says
Here's a US headline from CNBC:
A quarter of Americans are expecting to delay their retirement due to rising consumer costs, according to a new study
Some are coming out of retirement:
One in Five Retirees Planning to “Un-Retire” This Year
Of the total 800 survey respondents, 12% stated that they were somewhat likely to un-retire this year
New term: "un-retire"...
Older and older men are being un-retired and drafted into the Ukrainian army.
ReplyDeleteNot here
ReplyDeletehttps://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-great-retirement-boom.htm
ReplyDelete“ "The Great Retirement Boom": The Pandemic-Era Surge in Retirements and Implications for Future Labor Force Participation”
We get COLAs here due to “inflation!” … next years almost 9%…
Life insurance/annuity companies now advertising 8% returns guaranteed…
Bank CDs 5%…
From the Fed article:
ReplyDelete...excess retirements should eventually fade as those who retired early during the pandemic reach ages when they would have normally retired. Even as excess retirements fade, the retired share will remain well above its pre-pandemic level, reflecting population aging.
Not due to interest rates but the combined effect of the pandemic which is fading, and the latter which is due to the baby boomers retiring, the so-called pig in the python.
Demographers describe the baby-boom generation as ''the pig in the python'': a huge bulge in an otherwise skinny age distribution, gradually moving down the distribution as the boomers age.
COLAs and such are helpful, but these are offset by other factors that still leave retirees struggling. Higher interest income for example is offset by higher taxes and push people into higher tax brackets, which reduce government benefits for low-income seniors.
Annuity returns have doubled while their figurative “inflation” is like what 7%? Big deal…
ReplyDeleteMany boomers had to stay in workforce due to ZIRP and gennext deprived of entry and OJT … So now they increase risk free rate at unprecedented schedule and boomer people finally get to retire and the suddenness creates a skills shortage…
This is all Art Degree people doing this….
ERISA was based on a guaranteed govt securities yield of 6%…
ReplyDeleteSo what do monetarists do? They put rates at zero and nobody could retire..,
It’s the same thing in reverse of what they did in UK this year.. suddenly increased the rates and bankrupt the pension funds..,
Euthanize the monetarists…