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Monday, October 30, 2023

US national accounts data – no sign that interest rates are working the way economists think they work — Bill Mitchell

On October 26, 2023, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis published the latest US National Accounts figures – Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) – which showed that “Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023”. The June-quarter 2023 growth rate was 2.1 per cent. There was broad-based growth in all the expenditure components, including those that would be most sensitive to interest rate rises. My prior, of course, is that the interest rates would not significantly reduce growth in the short run, whereas mainstream New Keynesian theory considers interest rate rises to be an effective tool in moderating total spending, and, in turn, reducing inflation. The reality does not support the mainstream proposition. Consecutive national accounts releases from the US, however, have shown that aggregate expenditure is resilient in the face of the interest rate increases....
William Mitchell — Modern Monetary Theory
US national accounts data – no sign that interest rates are working the way economists think they work
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

11 comments:

  1. “ Second, there is a wealth effect operating, after households enjoyed significant growth in their net worth over the period of the pandemic, mainly because of house price inflation and the sharemarket boom”

    lol where?

    S&P up 9% since January 2021… not even CPI gain…

    Needs a course in finance..,

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  2. Alex at Reporterfy talking to two idiots who have no idea how money works ( the Duran ) predicts a derivatives super crash.


    Full discussion here....


    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sAErqW7vj7Y


    Come on Mike get this Alex dude on your podcast and teach him a thing or two. Do you know him have you heard of him ? I think he is Canadian.


    Gas and mortgages according to him is what are going to cause it. Mainly gas prices and the gas market.

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  3. Fooking madness of clowns if you ask me. Mercouris is so far out of his depth it is embarrassing. This Alex guy the big derivatives trader first time I've set eyes on him.



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  4. These loons always hand pick somebody off the street that suffers from the same GROUPTHINK as themselves and all the same confirmation biases.

    An echo chamber of madness. Mercouris really is an idiot when it comes to money and economics.

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  5. Have to choose your battles Foot. No one has infinite time and energy to take on groupthink.

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  6. I know it just drives me nuts how these guys act like the masters of the universe and the big whales and spread such shit.

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  7. Google says:
    What is an influencer? An influencer is someone who has: the power to affect the purchasing decisions of others because of his or her authority, knowledge, position, or relationship with his or her audience.

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  8. shit ~ effluent, so in this case, they are effluencers.

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  9. OFF TOPIC

    “The U.S. government is broke.” All politicians know that this is a lie, and all politicians use this lie when it serves their purpose. For example, House Speaker Mike Johnson wants to rush another $14.3 billion to Israel to increase the Gaza bombardment.

    Johnson says the $14.3 billion will be “paid for” by cutting the IRS budget.

    Democrats say that any cut to the IRS budget will deprive the U.S. government of badly needed revenue (which the U.S. government destroys upon receipt).

    The House will vote on Mike Johnson’s bill tomorrow. Even if it passes the House, the Democrat-controlled Senate will block it, and Brandon says he will veto it.

    U.S. support for Israeli crime and atrocities must be immediate, unlimited, and unconditional.

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  10. Why couldn't congress critters accept Biden regime's package deal?

    Money for Bibi and money for Z.

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  11. @Peter Pan

    Biden's handlers want endless more billions for Ukraine, plus the Gaza bombardment, plus Indo-Pacific lackeys against China -- all in one giant package.

    Republicans, however, want to split up those endless billions into three different packages.

    All Republicans and Democrats are desparate to rush money to their Jewish owners in order to increase the Gaza slaughter.

    So we'll see which side buckles first (Republicans or Democrats).

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