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Showing posts with label forecasting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forecasting. Show all posts
Thursday, January 9, 2020

Lars P. Syl — Is economics — really — predictable?

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There is a big difference between predicting and forecasting. Scientific theory is about causal explanation and prediction through formulat...
10 comments:
Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Primer: Causality In Models — Brian Romanchuk

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Since is about identifying regularity in change and developing theories that explain the causation, ideally in terms of variables and lin...
Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Brian Romanchuk — Representative Agent Macro And Recessions

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J.W. Mason kicked off the latest skirmish in the never-ending macro wars with his Jacobin article " A Demystifying Decade for Economic...
Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Brian Romanchuk — The Kalecki Profit Equation And Forecasting

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Having run through the Kalecki profit Equation ( link to the first part of a two-part primer ), I just want to make some brief remarks abou...
Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Brian Romanchuk — Forecastability And Economic Modelling

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When most people think about macroeconomics, what they want is the ability to forecast economic outcomes. However, economists' (of all ...
Sunday, September 3, 2017

Adam Shaw — Why economic forecasting has always been a flawed science

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So how do you make good predictions? I met “superforecaster” Michael Story, who was ranked 18th best among the 20,000 people who formed the...
1 comment:
Sunday, May 1, 2016

Daniel Little — Predicting, forecasting, and superforecasting

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Issues in forecasting social events versus predicting natural events. Understanding Society Predicting, forecasting, and superforecasting ...
2 comments:
Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Nate Silver — Models, Models, Everywhere

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We assign a lot of bandwidth to the FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast model, but that doesn’t mean it’s the only thing you should look ...