Friday, November 26, 2021

Modern Monetary Theory in the Periphery: What does MMT have to offer developing nations? — Ndongo Samba Sylla

MMT is getting around.

Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung
Modern Monetary Theory in the Periphery: What does MMT have to offer developing nations?
Ndongo Samba Sylla from the Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung, Dakar
https://www.rosalux.de/en/news/id/41681/modern-monetary-theory-in-the-periphery

Thursday, November 25, 2021

J. W. Mason — Inflation is bad. But mass unemployment would have been worse.

Lauren Melodia and I had an op-ed in the Nov. 21 Washington Post, challenging the idea that today’s inflation means that the stimulus measures of the past year and half were too large. I’m posting it here as well….
J. W. Mason's Blog
“Inflation is bad. But mass unemployment would have been worse.”
JW Mason | Assistant Professor of Economics, John Jay College, City University of New York

The Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu Theorem — Lars P. Syll

 Why conventional macro  based on Walrasian general equilibrium— which is all of it since it assumes rationality and general equilibrium  — reduces to nonsense, as Keynes noted long ago. It's way past time to move on.

Lars P. Syll’s Blog
The Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu Theorem
Lars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University
https://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2021/11/25/the-sonnenschein-mantel-debreu-theorem/

Scott Fullwiler and L. Randall Wray — It's Time to Rein In the Fed (Public Policy Brief)

Scott Fullwiler and Senior Scholar L. Randall Wray review the roles of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury in the context of quantitative easing, and find that the financial crisis has highlighted the limited oversight of Congress and the limited transparency of the Fed. And since a Fed promise is ultimately a Treasury promise that carries the full faith and credit of the US government, the question is whether the Fed should be able to commit the public purse in times of national crisis.
One page article (public policy brief). Download.

Levy Institute
Scott T. Fullwiler | Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Missouri - Kansas City, and L. Randall Wray | Professor of Economics, Bard College
https://www.levyinstitute.org/publications/?docid=1371

Bill Mitchell — When wages go up, we all benefit–what Starmer should have said

The British Labour Party leader (for now) Keir Starmer gave a – Keynote Speech – to the Annual Conference of the Confederation of British Industry in Birmingham on November 22, 2021. If you read it or heard it you will know that his leadership marks the return of British Labour as class traitors. He started by saying the “Labour is back in business”, which should have been ‘Labour is the agent of business’ He played up the line that Britain’s future depends on the business sector profits growing stronger than they are now and that everyone benefits when profits are high and growing. Even at the most elementary level that statement defies the evidence. But for a Labour leader to make it spells trouble for the Party. So what else is new....
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
When wages go up, we all benefit – what Starmer should have said
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=48743

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

The Real Reason Why OPEC+ Won’t Open The Taps — Tsvetana Paraskova

Shrinking spare capacity.

Oilprice
The Real Reason Why OPEC+ Won’t Open The Taps
Tsvetana Paraskova
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Real-Reason-Why-OPEC-Wont-Open-The-Taps.html

Links — 24 Nov 2021

The Grayzone
Corrupting science: in Syria probe, OPCW erased experts’ inconvenient findings
Aaron Maté
https://thegrayzone.com/2021/11/22/corrupting-science-in-syria-probe-opcw-erased-experts-inconvenient-findings/

The Vineyard of the Saker
The Saker
http://thesaker.is/very-telling-admission-from-eu-high-representative-josep-borrell/

SouthFront
U.S. Takes Another Step Towards Nuclear War
https://southfront.org/u-s-takes-another-step-towards-nuclear-war/

The Vineyard of the Saker
Why did Russia deploy so many forces against NATO?
The Saker
http://thesaker.is/why-did-russia-deploy-so-many-forces-against-nato/

The Vineyard of the Saker
The Saker
http://thesaker.is/the-russian-foreign-intelligence-svr-office-issues-a-warning-about-us-operations/

Moon of Alabama
The White House Needs An Off-ramp From War In Ukraine
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/11/the-white-house-needs-an-off-ramp-from-war-in-ukraine.html

Antiwar
NATO Conducting Provocative Drills in Latvia
Lucas Leiroz
https://www.antiwar.com/blog/2021/11/24/nato-conducting-provocative-drills-in-latvia/

Sputnik International
NATO's Increased Activities Forces Moscow to Build Up Non-Nuclear Deterrence, Defence Minister Says
https://sputniknews.com/20211124/natos-increased-activities-forces-moscow-to-build-up-non-nuclear-deterrence-shoigu-says-1090983546.html

TASS
Russian MFA says US Black Sea drills intent on dividing Moscow, Europe with ‘small war’
https://tass.com/defense/1365179

CaitlinJohnstone.com
Caitlin Johnstone
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2021/11/23/erm-i-know-youre-busy-but-nuclear-war-is-getting-increasingly-likely/

Russian and Eurasian Politics
The Siloviki to Russiagate’s Rescue – Russian & Eurasian Politics
Gordon M. Hahn | Expert Analyst at Corr Analytics, http://www.canalyt.com and a Senior Researcher at the Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies (CETIS), Akribis Group
https://gordonhahn.com/2021/11/24/the-siloviki-to-russiagates-rescue/

TASS
China demands US halt dialogue with Taiwan — Foreign Ministry
https://tass.com/world/1365613

Military Times (not yet an alliance but getting closer under continuing pressure)
Russia, China sign roadmap for closer military cooperation
Vladimir Isachenkov, The Associated Press
https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2021/11/24/russia-china-sign-roadmap-for-closer-military-cooperation/

TASS
Russia successfully counters US’ military threats — Chinese Defense Minister
https://tass.com/world/1365217

ECNS (China's version of sanctions)
http://www.ecns.cn/news/2021-11-24/detail-ihatchnz0428714.shtml

ECNS (someone should tell them about net exports being a cost in real terms of trade)
China's foreign trade volume hits record $4.89 trillion in first 10 months
http://www.ecns.cn/business/2021-11-24/detail-ihatchnz0428900.shtml

Visual Capitalist (a reason for the pivot to Asia?)
Rare Earth Elements: Where in the World Are They?
Nicholas LePan
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/rare-earth-elements-where-in-the-world-are-they/?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rare-earth-elements-where-in-the-world-are-they

My new podcast episode is out

The Truth About Inflation — Blair Fix

Why economists' talk about "inflation" is largely BS.

Economics from the Top Down
The Truth About Inflation
Blair Fix

Dani Rodrik’s Primer on Trade and Inequality — Prakash Loungani

Free capital flow increases inequality. No surprise. That is what is supposed to happen with capital accumulation under capital, where capital is privileged over labor (people) and land (the environment).

The Unassuming Economist
Dani Rodrik’s Primer on Trade and Inequality
Prakash Loungani | Assistant Director in the IMF's Independent Evaluation Office, Adjunct Professor at Johns Hopkins University (Carey School of Business), a Senior Fellow at Policy Center for the New South (a global think tank based in Rabat, Morocco) and a member of the advisory board of JustJobs Network based in New Delhi

Graber And Wengrow Yet Again — Robert Paul Wolf

Some comments on David Graeber and David Wengrow's The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity. This was Devid Graeber's last book. He since passed away.

Think "economics profession" when reading it. It is a good demonstration of why the historical method is superior to the naturalistic one in social subjects.

The Philosopher's Stone
GRABER AND WENGROW YET AGAIN
Robert Paul Wolff | Professor Emeritus, University of Massachusetts Amherst

China's Tech Regulators Strike Again — Angela Huyue Zhang

When Apple began asking iPhone users whether they wanted to opt out of data tracking, 84% said yes – dealing a major blow to platforms whose business models depend on the collection and sale of user data. This is an ominous sign for Chinese tech companies, which now face the prospect of much tougher data regulations....
China is passing legislation requiring opt-in rather than opt-out. This seriously affects the business model of Internet companies that collect user information and use it commercially. There is no such thing as a free lunch. Users pay with their information. The opt-in rate is far lower than the opt-out.

Project Syndicate
China's Tech Regulators Strike Again by Angela Huyue Zhang
Angela Huyue Zhang, a law professor, is Director of the Center for Chinese Law at the University of Hong Kong

Playing With The Strategic Petroleum Reserve — J. Barkley Rosser

Playing politics?

Econospeak
Playing With The Strategic Petroleum Reserve
J. Barkley Rosser | Professor of Economics and Business Administration James Madison University

Bill Mitchell — Governments should not ‘cool’ an economy or cut deficits when there are millions unemployed still

It’s Wednesday and only a few items today. It seems that the mainstream economists are emerging again and making all sorts of claims that fiscal policy has to target lower deficits and monetary policy needs to tighten (interest rates rise) to stop our governments going broke and inflation going wild. It really is like a tired broken record, isn’t it. They have sort of gone underground during the crisis and more are thinking it is time to reassert the nonsense of the past. And so it goes....
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Governments should not ‘cool’ an economy or cut deficits when there are millions unemployed still
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=48741

Rate increases

 

It’s as if the Fed did two 0.25% rate increases over the last two months:



MMT 101: “all prices are a function of what the government allows their banks to lend against things”; so it’s as if the Fed has delegated authority to the member institutions to increase the short term risk free rate by 0.5%

So now of course the NPVs of the banks govt bond assets are falling and resulting in regulatory capital deficiency (C=A-L):



So you Art Degree lefties big “neoliberal conspiracy!” continues apace where these crafty geniuses lend munnie to monetarist moron inflationista asshole speculators to sell the bonds at lower prices to make a few pennies on interest in the quarter which reduces the value of  their regulatory required govt security assets by $10Bs and requires them to raise even more capital to dilute themselves even more…

Yes these crafty “neoliberals!” are really geniuses and getting over on us again everyday!  😂





Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Turkey “inflation!”

 

Whaaaaattt??? More figurative “inflation!” bullshit from the Art Degree morons:



Fucking .29 at Lidl, Food Dog and Giant .39, Pubics .49, Weis .49, even Whole Paychecks only .99…

Bull fucking shit… there are a lot of bargains…


Geopolitika — This is how civilisations collapse

The realm of the possible is becoming the realm of the probable. Thinking ahead.

Geopolitika
This is how civilisations collapse
https://www.geopolitica.ru/en/article/how-civilisations-collapse

Related

Three-Toed Sloth
http://bactra.org/weblog/import-substitution-is-a-harsh-mistress.html

Monday, November 22, 2021

Bill Mitchell — Poverty is about lack of opportunity not individual characteristics

When I was a postgraduate student at Monash University in Melbourne, I had many debates with a senior academic who would become a co-author early in my academic career, about the relative importance of choice and constraint. In the standard mainstream choice-theoretic framework, people are conceived as maximising satisfaction through the choices they make subject to the opportunity set they face (the constraints). This simplistic version of human decision-making dominates mainstream economics and leads to nonsensical conclusions such that unemployment is a voluntary state where people are choosing leisure (a good) over work (bad) to maximise their well-being because the income coming from work (a good) is not sufficient on an hourly basis to offset the disutility that work engenders. That sort of thinking permeates the discipline. My former colleague kept saying that people make choices and you cannot deny that. The discussions were in relation to poverty incidence. My position was that it is trivial to say people make choices. We do, every day, but to understand complex phenomena such as poverty, it is better to focus on the constraints. That focus is likely to be more revealing. A person can be making choices but if their opportunity set is very narrow and any choice dooms that person to poverty then it doesn’t make much sense to dwell on the ‘free’ choice angle. Structuralists also agree with my emphasis here. Earlier this year (February 8, 2021), some academics associated with MIT in the US published a working paper – Why do people stay poor – and its results are revealing....
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Poverty is about lack of opportunity not individual characteristics
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=48736

Falling into Line: Turning Endless Deficits into a Power Base — Michael Hudson

Michael Hudson Interviewed on Kevin Barrett’s Truth Jihad Radio, 11/15/21
Podcast and transcript.

Michael Hudson — On Finance, Real Estate And The Powers Of Neoliberalism
Falling into Line: Turning Endless Deficits into a Power Base
Michael Hudson | President of The Institute for the Study of Long-Term Economic Trends (ISLET), a Wall Street Financial Analyst, Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City, and Guest Professor at Peking University.
https://michael-hudson.com/2021/11/falling-into-line-turning-endless-deficits-into-a-power-base/

Looking Back at How I was Looking Ahead — Stephanie Kelton

Inflation in the rear view mirror. Video.

The Lens
Looking Back at How I was Looking Ahead
Stephanie Kelton | Professor of Public Policy and Economics at Stony Brook University, formerly Democrats' chief economist on the staff of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee, and an economic adviser to the 2016 presidential campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders
https://stephaniekelton.substack.com/p/looking-back-at-how-i-was-looking

Interest Rate Policy Versus Alternatives — Brian Romanchuk

One of the ongoing arguments about Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) that I run across is the general disdain for monetary policy among MMT proponents. (At one extreme, Warren Mosler argues that interest rate policy works in a way that is backwards versus the consensus.)

Interest Rate Policy Ineffectiveness

The MMT position is straightforward, yet critics seem incapable of framing it correctly. Although Mosler is not alone in his views, many academics have a more nuanced position: interest rate policy has mixed effects, and is much weaker than the mainstream assumes is true. (This is in line with many post-Keynesians, although post-Keynesians are all over the map in terms of specifics. I believe it is safe to say that some post-Keynesians have views about monetary policy that are extremely hard to distinguish from conventional ones.) Whether or not MMT proponents’ policy prescriptions have merit, the argument that interest rate policy is largely ineffectual is a stand alone area of debate....
Bond Economics
Interest Rate Policy Versus Alternatives
Brian Romanchuk
http://www.bondeconomics.com/2021/11/interest-rate-policy-versus-alternatives.html

The Amygdala-Prefrontal Cortex Connection is Crucial

 What is causing so many people to take antidepressants? If you add up together all the percentages of the people who suffer from mental illnesses, it comes up a very large number. A lot of  people are suffering from Generalised Anxiety Disorder, Body Dysmorphic Disorder, depression, ADHD, dysthymia (chronic unhappiness), the list goes on an on, and added together, it's huge. 

New research shows how stress in families can cause children to get a disconnection between their amygdala - the primitive part of the brain that regulates fear - from their front cortex - the conscious part of the brain which tells the amygdala whether there is really anything to worry about, or not. When this is not properly connected, stress and fear can get out of control. 

Therapy can repair this disconnection to some degree later in life, but with an enormous amount of hard work. 

Watch the embedded video, it's so powerful. There is so much suffering in the world, and neoliberalism doesn't help. 


The Amygdala-Prefrontal Cortex Connection is Crucia


I know this video comes over as a bit like an advert, but I think Dr Greg Baer is right, and his therapy gives hope to millions of children with ADHD. These children are being given stimulants, which can harm a growing young brain, which is already under a lot of dress, even more. 


Greg Baer M.D. teaches you an ADHD treatment that is successful without medication. 



YouTube 

https://youtu.be/5ib3lv4UGL8


Sunday, November 21, 2021

Bill Mitchell — The current inflation trajectory still looks to be transitory

On November 11, 2021, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) related their BIS Bulletin No. 48 – Bottlenecks: causes and macroeconomic implications – which presents evidence that should help people who are becoming het up about the inflation numbers lately to calm down a bit. On June 8, 2021, the UK Guardian published an Op Ed I had written – Price rises should be short-lived – so let’s not resurrect inflation as a bogeyman – which I stand by. I have been criticised for dismissing the inflation threat and I regularly get E-mails announcing the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is ‘over’ and has been proven wrong by the rising inflation rates around the world. Those interventions actually break up my day with ‘humour’ – I am continually amazed how little people know who have such strong opinions. I always adopted the view that you work something out before forming an opinion. In this ‘social media’ era, the working out bit seems to have lapsed and people just jump in. That used to be called blind prejudice. Anyway, the BIS research is interesting and supports my on-going view that the current inflation trajectory still looks to be transitory and the forces that led to the supply bottlenecks will also likely unwind in the other direction to depress price rises.
Wake me up on this discussion about "inflation" when the pandemic is actually over with the global economy is operating normally—which is likely to be a new normal that is not foreseeable owing to the changes resulting from reactions to climate change, for example, and the condition of US-Chinese relations geo-economically going forward, e.g., increase rate of decoupling and increased rate of military expenditure owing to an arms race. In my view, there is actually a much greater threat of a global depression or war than an inflationary spiral, given the current trajectory and possible scenarios. 

"Inflation" is not even a blip on the radar, except in some overheated brains and among those talking their book. And now that MMT is becoming generally understood, the previous talk of national bankruptcy has given way to the inflation constraint. 

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
The current inflation trajectory still looks to be transitory
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Links — 21 Nov 2021

Jonathan Turley
Fighting “Information Disorder”: Aspen’s Orwellian Commission on Controlling Speech in America
Jonathan Turley | Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University

The Conversation
The US was not prepared for a pandemic – free market capitalism and government deregulation may be to blame
Elanah Uretsky, Associate Professor of International and Global Studies, Brandeis University
https://theconversation.com/the-us-was-not-prepared-for-a-pandemic-free-market-capitalism-and-government-deregulation-may-be-to-blame-165295

Asia Times
M. K. Bhadrakumar | retired diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service
https://asiatimes.com/2021/11/arc-of-encirclement-appearing-around-russia/

The Cradle
Pepe Escobar
https://thecradle.co/Article/columns/3738

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/americans-panic-buy-firewood-and-stoves-amid-rapid-energy-inflation

Sputnik International (will Russia be far behind in supplying advanced military technology to China?)
US, UK Agree on Supplying Australia With Naval Nuclear Propulsion Technology - White House
https://sputniknews.com/20211119/us-uk-agree-on-supplying-australia-with-naval-nuclear-propulsion-technology---white-house-1090871282.html

Geopolitika
Jan. 6 Riot an ‘Attack On NATO,’ Claims Secretary General [Jens Stoltenberg]
https://www.geopolitica.ru/en/news/jan-6-riot-attack-nato-claims-secretary-general

Now That’s Hyperinflation — Menzie Chinn

Cagan’s definition of hyperinflation.

Econbrowser
Now That’s Hyperinflation
Menzie Chinn | Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin–Madison, co-editor of the Journal of International Money and Finance, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research International Finance and Macroeconomics
http://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/11/now-thats-hyperinflation

Saturday, November 20, 2021

Going Underground - Alastair Crooke: Russia🇷🇺 & China🇨🇳 Not Accepting Declining US Shaping The International Order!

 The Biden Administration is being very hawkish towards Russia and China. 


On this episode of Going Underground, we speak to former Middle East Advisor to the European Union and the Founder of Conflicts Forum Alastair Crooke. He discusses rising tensions between the US and China over the US’ tacit support for Taiwan independence, the ‘Kosovisation’ of Xinjiang and Taiwan, China and Russia’s refusal to continue to allow the US to shape the future of the world order, Western media hysteria over a supposed invasion of Ukraine by Russia’s Vladimir Putin and much more.




YouTube 

Going Underground - Alastair Crooke: Russia🇷🇺 & China🇨🇳 Not Accepting Declining US Shaping The International Order!


Fiscal Muscle–How was it ever in doubt? — Stephanie Kelton

Contra Larry Summers.

The Lens
Fiscal Muscle–How was it ever in doubt?
Stephanie Kelton | Professor of Public Policy and Economics at Stony Brook University, formerly Democrats' chief economist on the staff of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee, and an economic adviser to the 2016 presidential campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders
https://stephaniekelton.substack.com/p/fiscal-muscle

Mackindergarten Lesson — Patrick Armstrong

Important. More on the intersection of geoeconomics and geopolitics/geostrategy.

Strategic Culture Foundation
Mackindergarten Lesson
Patrick Armstrong, retired analyst and diplomat (2008) serving in the Canadian Department of National Defence specializing in the USSR/Russia from 1984 and a Counsellor in the Canadian Embassy in Moscow in 1993-1996.
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2021/11/20/mackindergarten-lesson/

Related

Reminiscence of the Future
Andrei Martyanov, expert on Russian military and naval issues. Martyanov was born in Baku, USSR in 1963. He graduated from the Kirov Naval Red Banner Academy and served as an officer on the ships and staff position of Soviet Coast Guard through 1990. He took part in the events in the Caucasus which led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. In mid-1990s he moved to the United States where he currently works as Laboratory Director in a commercial aerospace group. He is a frequent blogger on the US Naval Institute Blog. He is author of Losing Military Supremacy, The (Real) Revolution in Military Affairs, and Disintegration: Indicators of the Coming American Collapse — Clarity Press
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2021/11/patrick-armstrong-on-governance-and.html

Thursday, November 18, 2021

Found in Translation: New York Times Says Democrats Shouldn't Challenge Oligarchy Norman Solomon, Jeff Cohen

Got that? Sit down, shut up, and follow the playbook.

Common Dreams

Alfred McCoy — Are Imperial World Orders Heading for Extinction?

Alfred McCoy speculates about the likely economics and political consequences of climate change given what is known presently. Of course, a lot of the assumptions regarding the scenario are likely to change, making forecasting rather hypothetical. But it is an interesting read.

Tom Dispatch
Alfred McCoy, Are Imperial World Orders Heading for Extinction?
Alfred McCoy | Harrington professor of history at the University of Wisconsin-Madison
https://tomdispatch.com/to-govern-the-globe/