Thursday, March 26, 2009

Is Nouriel Roubini about to go down in flames?



Long time perma-bear, Nouriel Roubini, is predicting that stocks will drop and the government will nationalize the banks. His gloom and doom forecasts over the past two years have made him a household name, but he's always been a bear. (A broken clock is right twice a day; on military time it's right once a day!)

Roubini's continued dire forecasts, in light of new data suggesting that the economy is stabilizing, might suggest that his views are nothing more than an entrenched and inflexible personal belief system, which wants to view the United States and the world's monetary system, as inherently flawed and un-fixable.

Only time will tell, however, I have a hunch that people like Roubini, Meredith Whitney, Schiff, Rogers, et al, will go down in flames with their inflexible and out-of-paradigm analyses of the global economy.

3 comments:

Michael said...

predicting the future is a weird business.

Its easy to be 'fooled by randomness' so to speak and let predicting get to your head. Whats more important to me is to really understand how the economy works. I want to look under the hood and see te machinery behind it all, and I think thats what you strive for here.

Mike Norman said...

Well said, Michael!

I would just add that most people harbor biases and prejudices. It takes discipline, effort and courage to try to reduce or rid yourself of those beliefs. Kinda like going to the gym to improve your body. For many, it's just easier to sit on the couch.

Michael said...

Yep, I'm inclined to believe that EVERYONE is biased, no matter what, until these guys figure it out!