Read it at Pinetree Capital
My thesis is that the odds are high that employment is growing faster than the consensus realizes. If so, there is a high probability that U.S. economic growth will exceed the current prevailing dour expectation, and perhaps by a large margin.
US Employment - It's Better Than You Think
By Marshall Auerback
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4 comments:
I disagree with Auerback on this one. Unemployment is a trailing indicator, not a leading indicator for consumer demand. For that you look at real wages, which point down...
I agree that the macro data can be deceiving, Dan. It's not just a countable job. I lot of people are getting crammed down the ladder and are underemployed either wrt skill or hours.
And, yes, the real wage is everything. The objective seems to be to reduce the real wage in the developed countries that that prevailing in the ROW. I call it the Great Leveling.
The objective seems to be to reduce the real wage in the developed countries that that prevailing in the ROW. I call it the Great Leveling.
Absolutely, Tom. And this strategy of reducing real wages, either by maintaining the downward wage pressure of permanent high unemployment, or by raising the prices of goods at a faster pace than nominal wages, has been explicitly endorsed by some "progressive" thinkers.
People at the top of the economic and cultural pyramid in America, who have cut themselves accelerating increases in their shares of the national income over the past few decades, have decided that the problem in America is that everyone else is still paid too much.
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