Tuesday, February 7, 2012

The Laffer Curve and Fiscal Policy


The dynamic calculation would be supplementary and not replace the current official scoring methodology, but the obvious long-term goal is to require official revenue estimates to incorporate “Laffer curve” effects in order to make it easier to cut taxes and harder to raise them.

The Laffer curve, named for the economist Arthur Laffer, posits that tax rates may be so high that a tax-rate reduction will raise revenue to the government and a tax-rate increase will lower revenue.
While no economist denies the theoretical possibility of a revenue-raising tax cut or revenue-losing tax increase, Republicans talk as if the United States is always on the high side of the Laffer curve – no matter what the tax rates are – so every tax cut will pay for itself and no tax increase could possibly ever raise net revenue and thus reduce the deficit.
Read it at The New York Times | Economix
Tilting the Budget Process to the G.O.P.
by Bruce Bartlett
(Bruce Bartlett held senior policy roles in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations and served on the staffs of Representatives Jack Kemp and Ron Paul.)

Must-read from the MMT perspective. It shows how the present budgetary process works from the right and how it is dictated by ideology rather than macroeconomic reasoning, let alone sectoral balances.
Republicans don’t really care about accurate revenue estimates; they just want them to show that tax cuts pay for themselves, so they can pass more of them without constraint. As my fellow Economix contributor Simon Johnson has noted, the corruption of the agencies that produce budget data is a crucial cause of Europe’s debt crisis.
Keven Drum chimes in at Mother Jones
Republicans Once Again Unleash Reality Distortion Field
by Kevin Drum

5 comments:

Matt Franko said...

Bartlett: "My concern is that the Republican effort is just a smokescreen to incorporate phony-baloney factors into revenue estimates to justify unlimited tax cutting."


And my concern is that we have morons in charge on both sides that believe the "government is like a household" and the "taxpayer on the hook!" dogmas.... oh brother Tom!

Resp,

Tom Hickey said...

@ Matt

The GOPers are totally nutty though.

Bartlett: It goes without saying that Congress deserves the most accurate possible estimates of the revenue effects of tax legislation, and no one denies that many past estimates have sometimes been far off because of unforeseen circumstances, such as recessions.
But Republicans assert that the errors are systematic and result principally from Keynesian economics. As the Budget Committee report on H.R. 3582 explains, the computer models used by the C.B.O. “are driven by traditional Keynesian economic relationships that emphasize the influence of aggregate demand on output in the short term.”

Matt Franko said...

"But Republicans assert that the errors are systematic and result principally from Keynesian economics [Ed: Cue eerie music here...]."

As the Budget Committee report on H.R. 3582 explains, the computer models used by the C.B.O. “are driven by traditional Keynesian economic relationships that emphasize the influence of aggregate demand on output in the short term.” -- Then WTF do they think drives business output decisions????

Oh, here it is right from Ben Bernanke this morning: "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is urging senators to resolve debates over tax cuts that expire this month and at the end of the year, saying uncertainty around both could slow the economy." --- See it's the 'confidence fairy' at work again! Stupid me!

What have we done to deserve these people????

Resp,

googleheim said...

Funny thing is that I already wrote about this _4_ years ago in this blog.

I also wrote the same idea to Krugman and Cohen @ NYT many times :

http://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/2008/11/kansas-city-fed-president-hoenigs.html

googleheim said...
I still think that most of the country is on the left side of the Laffer curve so far as need for tax money - and therefore taxes need to increase from the top down as part of the toolkit needed to fix what is going on now.

Has Globalization gutted the USA? What about all those patriotic corporations who salut the US soldiers yet incorporate in the Caymans and / or leave foreign entity earnings off the books for years and the reduction and or deferment of taxes ends up leaving soldiers with less gear and less healthcare.

Increasing taxes is patriotic and part of the Laffer curve and therefore supply side economics.

If not, then someone needs to chop the curve in half and leave only the right hand side showing.

OK - Spending and the should-be transparency of these collected funds is downstream and secondary to this.

OK - the taxes are secondary as well to the primary creation of the demand by the gov.

There are two sides of the accounting sheet : in-flow and out-flow, import and export, accounts rec and accounts pay, and so does the Laffer curve contain a left-side as frightening to all the "right" as it shall be.

If not, then they do not really understand the curve.

November 18, 2008 1:54 PM

googleheim said...

And also from 2009 :

MIKE NORMAN DID A BIG SPIEL ON LAFFER

http://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/2009/05/art-laffer-and-stephen-moore-all-dogma.html

googleheim said...
As for the above two comments :

The Lauffer curve of taxes is very simple and very smart. It is a work of genius - but what good is it if no one uses the entire curve from left to right ??

It seems that for democrats and for republicans that we are always on the right hand side of the bell's hump - that taxes are toooooo high and that receipts from taxes are therefore tooooo low and that the economy is tooooo slow.

Never, ever do they see that certain portions of the economy - geographical, market-wise, or other denomination are on the left hand side such that taxes need to increase.

Here we have a full picture of the curve and it comes from the Pitbull whereas you'd never hear it on the tv or radio.

May 28, 2009 4:10 PM