Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Nate Silver — The Virtues and Vices of Election Prediction Markets


Nate on polls, prediction markets, and methodology.

The New York Times | Five Thirty Eight
The Virtues and Vices of Election Prediction Markets
Nate Silver

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2 comments:

Alan Wang said...

Although it is too close for comfort, Obama is in a decent position. The Romney in is and has long been out-of-the-money. It needs volatility to finish in-the-money, and after the last debate I don't see much chance for any game changers to shift the status quo

paul said...

Uh-oh…

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/poll-obama-crosses-50-percent-opens-up-5?ref=fpb

Mitt may need some Depends.