Saturday, April 13, 2013

Brad Plumer — Peak oil isn’t dead: An interview with Chris Nelder


The pesky details.

The Washington Post — Wonkblog
Peak oil isn’t dead: An interview with Chris Nelder
Brad Plumer

(h/t Kevin Fathi via email)

3 comments:

Ryan Harris said...

Peak oil should be defined as when the rate of growth of alternatives is faster than the total growth in demand for energy. Rising stockpiles of fossil fuels around the world aren't coincidence. Governments, like Australia for example, have decided it is cheaper to halt construction of natural gas power plants, instead install wind turbines and export their natural gas. Those economic decisions, that used to be radical, are becoming common place.

In those terms, I think peak oil happened already. People got tired of paying for fuel, fighting for fuel and choking on pollution. So they have done anything and everything to reduce consumption. And it worked: Consumption dropped. Fuel efficiency rose. Alternatives became available.

Anecdotally, BNSF is getting rid of Diesel on their railways! That is huge. Second largest consumer besides the navy.

Driving the process of getting rid of oil, were companies like Winston Battery, Chesapeake Energy, Vestas and Maxim semiconductor that didn't invent the technologies but have worked hard to bring down the costs and make alternatives a reality that not only are cheaper than oil but are cleaner and safer, along with so many, many others that I'm ignorant of. The non-glamorous production and distribution of these new products is met with hostility and barriers at every turn and outdated misinformation. Luckily, most people don't care what energy source they use in their home or transportation so long as it is reliable, easy to get and cheap.


Ignacio said...

I kinda agree with Ryan here.

Trends in consumption and supply of energy are changing all over the world.

There is proof that the consumption of oil can be highly reduced in developed nations and this is the way we are going, via changes in consumption patterns and substitution of technologies.


Does a physical peak oil pose problems? Sure, as the background of the economy still is fossil fuel, and prices transmit around the economy taking into account the availability of cheap fossil fuels. It's hard to break the EROI barrier where it comes more efficient to use other energy sources, but with the oil EROI dropping continuously as it becomes more scarce and the alternatives becoming better, the gradual process of substitution is already happening.


We should speed up the process, as it's not going to be fast neither cheap (in real terms and in nominal terms) and poses several technical challenges. But coupling this with the stabilization and decline of the population in highest consumption countries I believe it can be handled properly.

Matt Franko said...

The opec people better see this coming and start to prepare for it... or it will be a bloodbath.