Monday, September 23, 2013

Barry Ritholtz gets it right, then gets it wrong.

Barry Ritholtz put up a nice blog post calling Bullshit on Andrew Ross Sorkin's video that claimed Lehman's failure caused the crisis.

In the post Ritholtz correctly reminds us that there was criminality associated with the period leading up to the crash and those crimes were ignored by both the Bush and Obama Administrations (and they continue to be ignored by the Obama Administration).

Furthermore, Ritholtz points out that many of the main actors who were involved in that criminality or, who's actions either brought on the demise of their firms or contributed to the crash itself, were highly compensated despite their denials. People like Dick Fuld of Lehman, Jimmy Cayne of Bear Stearns, Stanley Neil of Merrill and Angelo Mozilo of Countrywide, to name just a few.

But what killed it for me was when I went back to re-read Ritholtz's piece only to click through to his Washington Post column where he "educates" us as to what really caused the crisis only to hear him invoke the same, lame, worn out excuse of artificially low interest rates. (Cue Peter Schiff.)

It amazes me that a smart guy like Ritholtz is so clueless to the fact that interest rate adjustments are, at best, neutral, but more likely in the case of low interst rates, deflationary as opposed to being iinflationary.

What's so hard to get? For every debtor there is a creditor and for every saver there is someone who spends more than his or her income. That means, all that happens when rates are raised or lowered is that income gets redistributed around the economy. That's it. There is no "commodity boom" that pushes foodstuffs to record highs.

Did commodity prices rise from 2002 to 2008? Yes.

Was it due to low interest rates? No.

The crisis was caused by wild speculation and lack of regulatory oversight.

Had we regulated properly and prohibited "large passives" from owning scarce resources, just as was recommended to Congress by Mike Masters in a 2008 hearing, the runnup in foodstuffs and oil and everything else never would have happened.

Let's put an end to this "artificially low interest rate" meme once and for all. Please, we should be way beyond that by now.

1 comment:

Detroit Dan said...

I agree with Mike on this 100%. Well stated...