FYTD $NFA Injection

Table below depicting a month by month readout on $NFA injection so far this FY thru the end of August 2013 (right most column).

The last month of this FY (September) is shown here as a projected $310B based on recent daily flows and certain seasonalities.

August 2013 FYTD $NFA Injection

Month	Total_Withdrawals_TGA	Pub_Debt_Redemption	Net_Withdrawals_TGA
oct	933	589	344
nov	1035	643	392
dec	947	651	296
jan	969	643	326
feb	992	549	443
mar	888	511	377
apr	1121	751	370
may (adjusted)	1084	717	367
june	800	505	295
july	933	615	318
aug (adjusted)	962	607	355
sept  (projected)			310
FYTD			4193

If the 310B projected for the month of September becomes accurate, then we should end up the Fiscal Year at about $4.193T for 2013.

Last FY we came in at $4.180T so we are looking at a very small YoY increase in $NFA injection this year but an increase nonetheless, even with the $40B+ of "cuts" we have experienced over the past few summer months due to the "sequester".

Looking forward to FY 2014, based on recent OMB projections, unfortunately I see no significant increase for next year in $NFA injection again; so this past year's U.S. economic experience should be instructive on what to expect next year.

Just as this past year, the $4T+ of $NFA injection should still continue to be enough to foment a "muddle through" economy, as Warren often describes it, in 2014; with SP 500 earnings at or near $1T and perhaps another small couple $100B of increase in bank credit. Expect no significant increase in output or employment unfortunately.

For 2015, the outlook for a meaningful increase in $NFA injection looks a lot better based on current OMB projections, but recent statements by GOP political leaders on their required terms to reach a near term agreement on the "debt ceiling" so-called threaten to scuttle this optimistic outlook.