What he means is that people's "rational" expectations involve cognitive bias. Research shows that people generally use rule of thumb (heuristic) over rigorous procedure (analytical) to reduce transaction cost (Daniel Kahneman). Rule of thumb thinking, being intuitive rather than analytical, involves the well-established cognitive bias of overweighting the most recent experience.
Stumbling and Mumbling
Chris Dillow | Investors Chronicle (UK)
1 comment:
In architectural design, a 'heuristic search' means generating and testing a hypothesis (mindful of cognitive-bias); then adding the results to an established pool of knowledge, hopefully refining the next generation. 'Rule of thumb' means applying some broad principle from that pool of knowledge to some purpose. Rigorous analytical procedure is often too rigid: it is best used afterwards to clean up and polish. Beethoven heard his symphonies within, then wrote them down. A lot of great human 'uncoveries' come as bolts out of the blue. When it comes to human beings, it is rational not to have any expectations?
This highlights our communication problems: words as symbols mask meaning; and meaning masks purpose. When people speak to one another, one needs to understand first of all their motivation; then the meaning is given context - the symbols are just clothing. Meaning ties them together into a whole.
Shared meaning is the best representation of reality that people can come up with; Consciousness is knowing the Real; meaning is knowing the nature of that which veils the Real; Purpose drives the evolution of meaning, destined to reveal the Real.
From the frontline: 'send reinforcements, we are going to advance'. Message received at HQ: 'send three and fourpence, we are going to a dance'.
When the symbols are mixed up, or the same symbols used for different meanings, all purpose is lost. That biblical story about building towers (Babel) and confused tongues is just as relevant today! Despite all the technology, we are still learning how to communicate.
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