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This post and the post it links to have some highly dubious conclusions…a perfect example of basing one's observations on ticks rather than trends.
If a graph of private debt ∆(TCMDO-FYGFDPUN) vs GDP is looked at over a longer time frame (say since 1970) on a log scale (which shows rates of growth as well as absolute), it is clear that private debt expansion has not reached trend nor is it even close.
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This post and the post it links to have some highly dubious conclusions…a perfect example of basing one's observations on ticks rather than trends.
If a graph of private debt ∆(TCMDO-FYGFDPUN) vs GDP is looked at over a longer time frame (say since 1970) on a log scale (which shows rates of growth as well as absolute), it is clear that private debt expansion has not reached trend nor is it even close.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/33741/FGEXPND%20to%20GDPI%20log.png
There is headroom to get back or close to trend…there is none that I can see that could get a significant expansion.
We need to see much more data (which hasn't occurred yet) before we make these kinds of claims.
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