Interactive chart below thru the month end of April and now 4 statement-days into May.
February's strong increase was followed by March's YoY collapse and then a move back to about breakeven for April and the same for where we are now just a few days into May, i.e. 'breakeven'.
For the full FY we are behind by about $37B which interestingly is the total amount we fell behind in October and November during the government "shutdown" and its short term aftermath.
If this recent trend towards YoY "breakeven" is what we will come so see for the rest of the FY then expect the continuing single digit earnings growth for equities on the back of productivity gains (i.e. more people getting thrown out of their jobs...) and share count reductions; and sub-par GDP growth as a result of mostly changes in the US external balance. The S&P 500 firms will make their $1T or so.
More as Warren term's it "muddle through".
It is increasingly looking like we will have to wait until next FY to get any meaningful YoY growth in fiscal and if so then next year should be a lot better as far as the economy goes, pretty simple.
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