Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Brad DeLong — In Which I Make Myself Very Confused About Cyclical Recovery

So which is it? Has hysteresis done 1.8%-points of damage to 25-54 employment or 0.9%-points to total employment? Have we done 3/4 of the work of recovery relative to the proper labor force-trend share benchmark? Or have we done only 1/3 of the work of recovery?
The 25-54 data and the economy-wide aging trend-adjusted data used by the CEA appear to be telling us very different things both about the cyclical state of the labor market and about the damage done by hysteresis. How to reconcile? Which is right?
WCEG — The Equitablog
In Which I Make Myself Very Confused About Cyclical Recovery
Brad DeLong
 

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