Chart below depicting monthly YoY leading government spending flow.
Since the big YoY gain in February, in comparison the FY2014 months have been lackluster, with March falling behind more than February was up, April a breakeven, and May thru June flip-flopping within this 60 day period.
July was up $5B YoY with a strong finish towards the end of the month, and now there is a $5B gain only 2 statement-days into August. So the short term trend is promising, we are probably up approximately $10B YoY over the last 3 weeks.
But it is only a very short term trend and what we need to see is this trend exhibited month after month after month before we can conclude that fiscal flows have been meaningfully increased; and hence we should expect some meaningfully higher and consistent economic growth within the global USD based system for a change.
This version of the OMB Budget (Adjusted Baseline, page 168) indicates a YoY increase in "Outlays" of approximately $180B is planned and perhaps can be expected next year, so at some point, this YoY growth in the budgetary planning should start to be manifested in the actual spending data; which portends an average YoY monthly gain of $15B and should start to get things going; but again, IF indeed this growth in the budgetary planning is actually ever manifested in the actual spending.
4 comments:
"IF indeed this growth in the budgetary planning is actually ever manifested in the actual spending."
A sorry story and all based on an unexamined and maliciously falsified presumption that the government can't really play a strategic role in the market economy because it has to take the money to do so from the non-government sector.
Scho,
That is true but what I am (trying) to imply is that there is a "disconnect" between the Budget and what we see in these cash basis accounting data taken from the Daily Treasury Statement...
What we see is that the current year budget can differ greatly from the cash basis spending data...
But at some point, I still think that the general trend of the Budget numbers should converge with those of the cash basis Treasury Statement ie UP about $15B per month ... perhaps that time is now and leading into 2015 but we'll have to wait and see... fingers crossed...
rsp,
Yes I understand what you are doing and we should all be grateful for your willingness to do this analysis.
What I'm hinting at is the notion that "the spending" should in an ideal world be more formulaic in relationship to the strength of an "equitable" demand be it government spending or tax reductions and consequently seen as necessary rather than optional. We seem to have lived on hope for far to long that the right thing will be done by government.
Right Warren uses the metaphor about the old fashioned child car seats where the seat had its own steering wheel and the kid would be jerking the wheel back and forth thinking that they were actually driving the car...
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