To a China which is rising and raising its global profile, BRICS is an asymmetrical equivalent of the G7, albeit in a very different shape and form. The SCO, to use a similar analogy, is an asymmetrical analogue to NATO, but as a political organization of continental Asia (including Russia), rather than a military bloc. The inclusion of India and Pakistan into the SCO is a logical next step. Iran, currently an observer, can follow later. Turkey, an SCO dialogue partner and a member of NATO, can become a useful link to the North Atlantic alliance.
Enhancing the SCO's security credentials and extending its reach requires a major qualitative upgrade of China's strategic thinking and diplomacy, and an even closer partnership with Russia. The SCO summit in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, will probably not see this yet, but it might become a point when the balance of Eurasia has decisively turned in China's favor. Beijing would need to thank Washington for it.
China's population is almost four time as large as that of the US, and twice as large as the US and EU. China is an emerging country with huge growth to look forward to, while the West is already highly developed. This suggests that as the 21st century unfolds China will increasingly be the dragon the global room. While the West still has a technological edge, both Russia and China are nuclear powers and have advanced space programs. This suggests that they have the technological expertise to compete with the West is most other technological fields. At some point in this century China may surpass the West in technological prowess.
The forward press of neoliberal policy is increasing cooperation of emerging countries to resist Western dominance. The West, led by the US, is banking on being able to catalyze regime change in these countries to neoliberal regimes. In fact, the West is betting the farm on it. What could go wrong?
3 comments:
China and Russia need closer ties. For too long they've been too suspicious of each other to really embrace their full potential trading relationships and common strategic goals. Much of what China sources from far flung places on the globe can be found in abundance in Russia. They just didn't want to go there. Better for everyone if they cozy up let their respective oligarchs strengthen ties. China needs Russian missile technology but Russia won't sell missile systems to China because China will reverse engineer the systems. Those sorts of suspicious need to be broken down.
Worrying about China and Russia cozying up, is like worrying about the US and Canada. More liberal/neoliberal Paranoia about emerging markets and China rising. The world is big enough for everyone, I don't get the alarmist liberal xenophobic bent. Between the conservatives and liberals that see a scheme and plot behind every world event, and perceive every event as a threat, we have no chance for a peaceful existence.
The world is not big enough to prevent megalomaniacs from destroying it.
What could go wrong? Everything, up to and including a nuclear World War III.
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