Friday, September 5, 2014

Treasury Withdrawals Back in the Toilet YoY...


Looks like we are back in the malaise mode wrt a comparison of YoY US Treasury withdrawals.


We saw a small but short-lived revival in YoY growth in this measure of US Treasury spending during July (+5B YoY) and then into August when during this month we typically were running about +10B YoY, but as the above chart shows, we ended up fading a the very end of August and ended up DOWN by $13B when all was said and done.

If we go back and look at the multi-month period from April thru the first of September, we are collectively DOWN $13B YoY for this segment of the year.

So it should not be surprising that we see lackluster employment data of the variety we saw in the payroll report for last month that was released this morning.



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2 comments:

Ryan Harris said...

Good call, Matt. NFP was dreadful. Unemployment goes from 6.2 to 6.1 only with a .1% fall in participation. Net jobs added were less than population growth. And all that with a fresh crop of Graduates out of school only a couple months ago many still looking for work.

September 5, 2014 at 12:01 PM
Matt Franko said...

'Gotta get this thing going the other way Ryan... I was pretty hopeful during August as we were up 10B or so most of the month, but then in the last week it took a nosedive YoY.... and now the first day of Sept is down too so the short term trend is not promising...

Between just defense and education we are down a combined 30B YTD or so... so looks like we are heading towards an even dumber population and the head-cutters will probably eventually be able to just walk right in....

Pretty disgraceful.. rsp,

September 5, 2014 at 12:56 PM

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