The ruble is sensitive to the political situation, of course. Independently of that experts put the value at about 40-45 USD/RUB, whereas it is in the mid-fifty range now. However, the economic position of Russia is shifting structurally owing to the prodding of the political situation, and steps are being taken to cure Dutch disease of resource-export dependence by broadening and deepening the economy. In addition, Russia has become much more active globally, seeking new partners as well as deepening existing relationships, for example, with India.
Regarding the geopolitics and geostrategy, the conventional wisdom is that the US is engaged in a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine and hemming in Russia's near abroad. This is only tactical, however. The real situation is much larger.
Since the breakup of the USSR, Russia can no longer challenge US hegemony in the foreseeable future. But China can and is. The strategic situation is that the US engaged in a proxy war with China with Russia as the proxy. This will be the unfolding narrative of history for the next few decades at least.
The US has decided that it must act now instead of letting China get any stronger, putting it in a strong position to challenge the US and its allies, not necessarily for global hegemony at first, but to break the lock the US has had on the world since the end of the Cold War, a strategy put in place at the end of WWII.
So the US is not expected to take the political, economic and military pressure off Russia anytime soon. This figures significantly into how the value of the ruble is perceived in the market.
True Economics
Ruble's Gains Are Convincing, But Risks Remain
Constantin Gurdgiev
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