If Greece votes "NO" and exits the euro and re-introduces the drachma I am buying every Greek stock I can buy. Hopefully, the initial reaction will be a sharp selloff, so this way I can get them at a huge discount.
After Argentina broke the dollar peg and went back to the peso in 2002, the Argentine stock market proceeded on a 1500% advance over the next two years. It was the best performing stock market in the world.
I don't believe in all the gloom and doomers who say that going back to the drachma will be the equivalent of "out of the frying pan and into the fire."
The fire--the HELL--has been the euro and austerity. I am not saying that everything will immediately turn rosy for Greece. Not at all. There will be a period of acute suffering, but then things will normalize and get much better. They will be free of all that crushing debt and austerity.
The financial markets will be discounting this and moving higher.
Anyway, that's what I think and I am going to put my money where my mouth is.
12 comments:
Only 15% of Greeks want to exit the euro, so it seems nearly impossible for that outcome to come to fruition, even if the no vote wins the day.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102809690
"The survey found that 74 percent of Greeks want to stay in the euro, while just 15 percent want to return to a national currency, with 11 percent undecided."
Exit polls showing the No vote with an edge so far. European corporate overlords heads are surely spinning by now. Any guesses on what the Troika's next move will be if the No vote holds up?
Just a reminder that this referendum is not over the euro or EU membership. It's even about something that is no longer over the table.
I know that this is presented as an ideological battle, but the moron-mass media fabrication that this means that Greece will quit the euro or the EU is garbage. What this probably would mean though is a default within the euro system.
It will be interesting to see how "political" does the ECB go this time, and how far are Greece authorities going to go in the courts if the whole situation degenerates. As Neil has said elsewhere, this could mean the beginning of the end for the euro.
I hope this evolves into a institutional crisis at least and kicks the neolibs in Brussels/Berlin in the balls.
I don't think there is chance Greece will exit the euro, unless they are somehow pushed out illegally.
Here's a quote from AP:
"I hope people say `yes,'" European Parliament President Martin Schulz told German public radio. "If after the referendum, the majority is a `no,' they will have to introduce another currency because the euro will no longer be available for a means of payment."
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_GREECE_BAILOUT?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-07-05-15-20-13
Is that factual that Greece can and or will be booted from the euro if it fails to knuckle under to its creditors ?
Whether Greece leaves the EZ or not has nothing to do with finance, banking, debt, money or anything else that is economic. It is a POLITICAL decision by Germany, and nothing else matters.
If Germany decides to keep Greece in, the economics follows (whether good policy or further bad policy) as Germany dictates. If it chooses to force Greece out, the knowing lie will be that it was economic.
The pro-"yes" forces attempted to redefine the vote as a vote on whether Greece would stay in the eurozone. But Syriza was absolutely insistent on the fact that that was not the case.
I think this could be the beginning of the EU forming a fiscal mechanism for its member-states. When that happens, expect to see the resurgence of a European bull market that could last a decade or more. The ECB is already quietly buying Greek, Spain, and other debt in order to keep things afloat. It's just not enough to spur growth. They need to bring this practice into the open and make it standard, not exception to the rule.
I'm interested in seeing how Hollande responds. He has IMF and US support to begin working on defining a new Eurocratic center. It's hard to believe that Europe will just continue down the fanatical path charted by the Germans and Dijsselbloem. The euro is falling; and pre-election pressure tactics were of dubious legality. Germany is at risk of growing diplomatic isolation if they don't find some path to a climb-down within the context of a broader EU compromise summit.
There was a lot of pre-referendum posturing all around. But the Europeans are going to get pushed much harder from the outside now. With growing signs of weakness in China, the rest of the world can't afford an economically unstable and stagnating Europe pulling us all down further. Merkel is traveling to Paris, not the other way around. I think she is going to have to bite the bullet on debt restructuring, and sell it to her people as something Germany was forced to accept due to worsening global conditions. If Greece collapses further or there is a chaotic exodus from the EZ, European creditors aren't going to get paid anyway. The Merkel strategy is a clear failure, no matter how many ordinary Germans are behind it. It's time for someone else to get into the lead chair and impose themselves between the Germans and the Greeks as a compromise figure.
"It's time for someone else to get into the lead chair and impose themselves between the Germans and the Greeks as a compromise figure."
That won't happen. The Germans rule in the EU due to the power of their economy and their banks.
What this might do though is push the Germans towards exit from the Euro.
"What this might do though is push the Germans towards exit from the Euro."
I don't think that will happen. It smacks too much of a sulky retreat and admission of defeat, even for Germany.
The Germans might be the de facto financial bosses pulling the strings, but the German figures who have been center stage will have to retreat a bit into the wings and elevate a more neutral figure with the capacity to design a compromise.
What about the dual currencies idea?
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