We've had a nice "Greek deal" rebound in the stock market in the past 36 hours, but I think that there may be only a limited amount of upside in this rally. Could end by tomorrow or, Thursday at the latest.
I have been closely following spending data off the Daily Treasury Statement and there has been a very noticeable slowdown in the rate of Federal spending since early May. This has capped the rally in my opinion.
While year-over-year data still looks strong, the rate of flow (think water flowing through a hose into a pool) is slowing. Furthermore, employment tax deposits to the Federal government have been slowing, too, suggesting some weakness emerging in the job market.
I cannot confirm this with any particular data, but these are observations I have been making from reading and following the DTS.
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