Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Ewen MacAskill — West and Russia on course for war, says ex-Nato deputy command

This book is not the decision of a loner actor. It is a plant to justify NATO expansion to the east along with a buildup of forces there to encircle Russia. It is laying down the plan for continued expansion with a high likelihood that Russia will respond militarily by seizing more territory as a buffer.

NATO commanders realize that they have a very low chance in any case of stopping a Russian advance into easter Ukraine and the Baltic states owing to the advantages Russia has logistically so close to its home turf.  Therefore, this can be interpreted as a decision to force Russia to act militarily in order to justify a NATO "counterattack."

Why now? Because Russia is arming up quickly and shortly it will not be possible. Perhaps within a year or two. The window to attack Russia successfully is closing fast. China too, although less quickly. Russia is already much better armed than China and has much greater capability in military technology.

Even if Russia would choose not to attack in the event of a large NATO buildup in the Balkans and possibly Ukraine, NATO would be propositioned relatively few miles from Moscow, which would be a significant military advantage since ABM could also be prepositioned.

Russia is already reactivating its rail-borne ICBMs, which ceased after the fall of the USSR.

Alarm bells should be going off.

For example, Ukraine is building up forces at the line of control the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine and shelling Donbass on a regular basis with heavy artillery. An attack is expected. It is unlikely that Russia would eastern Ukraine fall to what would be considered in Russia as a Nazi onslaught. It would be politically infeasible for the Putin government to let this happen. It would be replaced by a nationalist government led by a party in Russia that already believes that war with NATO is inevitable.

Another reason to stop Trigger Happy Hillary. Maybe Trump would call off the crazies. Maybe.

The Guardian
West and Russia on course for war, says ex-Nato deputy command
Ewen MacAskill, Defence correspondent


Bob said...

Are you agreeing with the premise of that book?

Bob said...

Russia has a buffer, it's called Western Russia.

Tom Hickey said...

Are you agreeing with the premise of that book?

Of course, I don't think for a minute that Russia planning to initiate aggression in eastern Europe. I said that the book is a plant — propaganda.

It's a piece of NATO propaganda to get folks fired up for war and to justify the moves NATO is taking and the moves it intends to take to provoke Russia.

If I lived in Europe, I would be especially concerned. Europe will be the first battleground if there is war with Russia, and the Russians have already warned that they plan to use tactical nukes since NATO has force superiority. They have already moved missiles into Kaliningrad. They have warned non-NATO countries that if they cooperate with NATO they will be targeted with nukes too.

This is not a white knuckle moment yet, but it is getting there.

Bob said...

We either fight a nuclear war or we don't. And I doubt that such a conflict could be neatly contained on European soil. So yeah, lets get folks fired up for an expensive stand-off that comes with risks and zero benefit.

Bob said...

The silly games played by silly boys: