Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Goldman economist: Full Employment this year


This is how they think sorry folks.  So they are looking for interest rate increases this year. If so then some fiscal help is on the way.





5 comments:

Tyler Healey said...

Hatzius should check out this graph: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300060.

Tom Hickey said...

What is "full employment"?

Bob said...

It's not NAIRU?

Matt Franko said...

Tom to them its like 5% to 10% unemployment to us...

Aint going away until they do....

This is like the scripture "the poor you will always have..."

It aint going away until they do... this is just the way they think...

Tom Hickey said...

Well, one needs to define "full employment," so that is a theoretical question where the so-called facts become theory-laden.

The standard def = U3.

Moreover, full employment implies full capacity/no output gap and therefore high inflation risk.

If the theory is dodgy, expectations will be off, and policy (reaction function) will be wrong.