Brian Romanchuk — Fed Hike Cycle: The Long Game

I discuss rate hike cycle at much greater length in Interest Rate Cycles: An Introduction. The key argument is that bond yields are driven by expectations for the path of short rates, and not some abstract notion of "supply and demand."

If you are trading short-term interest rate futures (fed funds, Eurodollar), yes, the short-term path of the policy rate (and LIBOR spreads) matters. However, if you are looking at the pricing of a 10-year Treasury Note, you need to have a forecast horizon similar to that 10-year maturity.

Bond Economics
Fed Hike Cycle: The Long Game
Brian Romanchuk