Gordon M. Hahn — Khodorkovskii Gets It: Russian-Negotiated Transition, Not Western-Backed Revolution

An interesting analysis but it is within a framework that the majority of Russians would be in favor of a Western liberal political process if given the choice. However, that does not seem to the case in Russia presently.

The largest contingent preferring a traditional Russian political process based on the Tsarist-Russian Orthodox Church model of the past. This is a major reason that Putin shifted his stance to the right, although nowhere near far enough for conservative traditionalists like Alexander Dugin. 

Moreover, about a fifth of Russians vote for the Communist Party. 

Western liberal parties glean only about five percent of the electorate. This cohort is located mostly in Moscow and St. Petersburg, so it's demonstrations seem to have a much wider impact in Russia than they do. The rest of Russia is much more conservative than these big cities.

Finally, the Russian experiment with liberalization and "democracy" after the collapse of the USSR that led to the rise of the oligarchs and Russian mafia and a general impoverishment of everyone else. This experience soured most of the Russian people on the Western model. Russians even coined a term for it — dermokratiya — which translates into English as "shitocracy."

It's much more likely that Mikhail Khodorkovskii is simply trying to reinsert himself into Russian politics after Putin busted him for overreach as an oligarch during the go-go years that the oligarchs are seeking to recreate for themselves.

Russian and Eurasian Politics
Khodorkovskii Gets It: Russian-Negotiated Transition, Not Western-Backed Revolution
Gordon M. Hahn

Gordon M. Hahn, Ph.D., is an Analyst and Advisory Board Member at Geostrategic Forecasting Corporation (Chicago), http://www.geostrategicforecasting.com; member of the Executive Advisory Board at the American Institute of Geostrategy (AIGEO) (Los Angeles), http://www.aigeo.org; Contributing Expert for Russia Direct, russia-direct.org;Senior Researcher at the Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies (CETIS), Akribis Group, San Jose, California; and an Analyst and Consultant for Russia – Other Points of View (San Mateo, California), www.russiaotherpointsofview.com.