Gordon M. Hahn — Explaining the Failed Expectations of Russian Regime Change, Part 1: Rusological Apocalypticism Versus Social Science

This article is the first in a trilogy examining how the West’s biases and wishful thinking have led to unrealistic and unmet expectations of imminent regime collapse in Russia.

I follow this stuff and am gobsmacked at how Western liberal "experts" generalize their own worldview in analysis. It's not only Russia, but everything, and it is not only political and military analysts, but included most experts on just a bout everything.

This is a consequence of assuming that liberalism is the natural state of humanity so that spreading "freedom" will result in liberal utopia, like they enjoy in their bubble. Which is just bonkers. The result? Living in la-la land. "The Iraqis will greet us with flowers."

Hahn's own analysis is not completely above this either, since he takes a sociological approach involving generality. However, all countries are different for historical, geographical, cultural and institutional reasons. Failing to analyze specific case based on understanding these factors will lead to overgeneralization and also be subject to cognitive-affective bias owing to the frame imposed.

Even Russians don't pretend to understand "the Russian soul." Or better, Russians especially don't rationalize their temperament, which is heavily non-rational in the sense of "mystical." Analyzing Russia and Russian based on Western concepts of "rationality" is bound to fail. China and Chinese, Indians and India, etc. even more so since Russia is at least partly in the Western tradition owing to its connection with Byzantium through Russian Orthodoxy and Tsar Peter's Westernization. But the Russia Federation is Eurasian rather than European.

Gordon M. Hahn
Explaining the Failed Expectations of Russian Regime Change, Part 1: Rusological Apocalypticism Versus Social Science

Gordon M. Hahn, Ph.D., | Analyst at Geostrategic Forecasting Corporation (Chicago), member of the Executive Advisory Board at the American Institute of Geostrategy (AIGEO) (Los Angeles), and Senior Researcher at the Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies (CETIS), Akribis Group, San Jose, California