The Arthurian — Hey, Tom

Remember when I said

I predict a boom of "golden age" vigor, beginning in 2016 and lasting eight to ten years. It has already begun. In two years everyone will be predicting it. 

Tom, you said

Art goes out on the limb....

Art follows up.

I admit that things are looking up for the US and the global economy, which are still coupled.

But there is also a lot of other coupling (like China), and so predictions have to be contingent on trends holding or improving, with no surprises like adverse shocks.

Lots of things can go wrong both domestically in the US and also internationally. Some contingencies are known, and some may be unknown, hence impossible to anticipate, e.g, accident, acts of God, knock on effects or unintended consequences that are unforeseeable.

Some of these things are financial, some economic, some political and some military. Right now, it's a balancing act, or maybe more like juggling knives.

Is confidence running too high now for conditions? How much hedging is recommended?

The New Arthurian Economics
Hey, Tom
The Arthurian