Saturday, January 13, 2018

Jason Smith — Immigration is a major source of growth

One of the findings of the dynamic information equilibrium approach (see also my latest paper) is that nominal output ("GDP") has essentially the same structure as the size of the labor force.
The major shocks to the path of NGDP roughly correspond to the major shocks to the Civilian Labor Force (CLF). Both are shown as vertical lines. The first is the demographic shock of women entering the workforce....
With the positive shock of women entering the labor force ending, immigration is a major (and perhaps only) source of growth in the US aside from asset bubbles [3].
Information Transfer Economics
Immigration is a major source of growth
Jason Smith


Ralph Musgrave said...

So the more people there are in a country, the larger its GDP.!!! I never knew that.

Why don't we have loads of people move from Russia, Africa etc to the US, which will increase US GDP. Then have them all move back again, which will increase the GDP of Russia, Africa etc?

samuel said...

Yes. Gdp increases with spending. The more people spend, the more gdp.
But you want only good people to come to a country. This is to prevent crime which is a different story.

Tom Hickey said...

Inscription on the Statue of Liberty that welcomed immigrants to the US that passed through immigration at Ellis Island.

"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me.
I lift my lamp beside the golden door."

My mother's family, father, mother, and two brothers, passed though Ellis Island, and there is a record of it in the Ellis Island records, which can now be accessed online.

They didn't comes as immigrants, actually, but on family business, and my grandparents expected to return quite soon. But my grandmother contracted TB, obviating their making the return trip.

Luckily, as it turned out consider that they missed WWI, the horrible aftermath that culminated in the rise of Hitler and then WWII, although one of my mother's brothers did volunteer for the US Army as a dentist and served just behind the lines on the Western front in Europe.

Neil Wilson said...

Usual problem here - economist fails to take a whole world view.

It's always 'economy' and 'rest of world'. The impact on 'rest of world' is largely ignored.

That viewpoint leads to the myth of manufacturing as the saviour of an economy. It's entirely a chimera.