Thursday, August 6, 2020

How scientists know COVID-19 is way deadlier than the flu

After months of study, scientists have better clarity on the coronavirus's lethal potential—which makes recent case surges all the more alarming.

Covid-19 could be 50 to a 100 times more deadlier than the flu.

What’s more, scientists today have a better sense of how to measure COVID-19's lethality, and the numbers are alarming. Using a more sophisticated calculation called the infection-fatality rate, paired with the past few months’ worth of data, the latest best estimates show that COVID-19 is around 50 to 100 times more lethal than the seasonal flu, on average.

This means that the U.S. and other countries seeing case surges need to brace for a very deadly summer and autumn if tactics don’t change.

National Geographic

How scientists know COVID-19 is way deadlier than the flu


NeilW said...

Amazed anybody falls for this given that it can be simply and easily debunked by the area under the excess death curve. A basis integration calculation.

How about some more real science.

Selective and cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 T cell epitopes in unexposed humans

And from the comments on that paper.

"> The whole human population is immunologically naive to it.

This study provides direct evidence that the “novel factor” is not as important as was previously thought. Maybe no-one has cleared a virus exactly like this one before (we can’t be sure), but it is looking more and more like many people have pre-existing immune responses that can clear this one.

> Suppression/eradication is the only way forward.

You may end up being right, but to me this is sounding less and less like a scientific conclusion, and more and more like a religious creed."

It seems I'm not the only one reaching that conclusion.

Peter Pan said...

“Give me your tired, your poor, your elderly.
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe.
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore."

- Covid 19