Net Spending

 

Table below shows some recent selected months net spending;  ie Total Withdrawals - Total Redemptions 

October 2020 $402b (month leading into election...Democrats really screwed Trump and us) 

November 2020 $472b

Feb 2021 $598b 

March 2021 $985b (wow!) 

April 2021 $723b 

May 2021 $685b 

So this peaked in March on the 1.9B Biden stimmy and now is headed back down...   If no further stimmy is passed (imo does not seem likely) then we probably trend back to November levels down around $500b.... 

If so then the drop from recent peak monthly flow will be about $500b... 

We'll ofc keep an eye on this... but last year during full blown covid shutdowns we were running 400b to 500b per month now with vaccines and cases waaaay down and red states getting back open Dems were increasing the flows by all time record amounts so you can see why we had the recent increase in a lot of prices that have probably topped out along with these flows in March...

Going from $402B in October to $985B in March is probably the largest increase in world history in a 4 month period by any direct or relative measure ... monthly flow over doubled in that short period...

What did the Nasdaq do then from March 1 when this big increase started until now?

Nasdaq index opened at 13,406 on March 1 and closed today 3 months later at 13,756, up 350 points or 2.6% big deal...

Probably the GOAT of all fiscal increases even by relative measures and this part of the equity market up 2.6% in 90 days...  this is not an impressive rally at all.... in fact I don’t think it measures up to the nasdaq long term average...