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watch the debt ceiling spikes up bond prices and then the Fed will suddenly stop the QE out of left field because they dont want to pay that much for the bonds..
this would be just like they were all gung ho on QT in 2019 then all of a sudden out of left field they stopped it as they realized they were running reserves below their own 10% level... they always do shit like that...
There are monetary targets, and one is inflation, the monetary fulcrum. Powell has disavowed monetarism.
Powell: “Inflation is not a problem for this time as near as I can figure. Right now, M2 [money supply] does not really have important implications. It is something we have to unlearn.”
Powell: “There was a time when monetary policy aggregates were important determinants of inflation and that has not been the case for a long time” Powell refers to M2. These time-dependent mechanics are subject to the limitations of all logical models, analyses based upon broad statistical aggregates, namely, the data cannot be compiled accurately, defined fittingly, or applied in a manner which conforms to rigid theoretical constructs.
Probably worst case scenario right now would be an acceleration in Delta variant but because of divided government there would be no fiscal policy response this time but non-govt would start to self lockdown again… so we would get an economic slowdown in the numbers which would start a decent bond rally then the debt ceiling would hit after extraordinary measures are exhausted in another month and create a supply shortage of Tsys and yields would go negative…
This imo is worst case scenario … Fed I guess would probably have to end QE abruptly without notice if yield curve inverted…
Not saying this is going to happen but is just worst case scenario…
Did war unite the country during Vietnam? Now that it's a volunteer military, who does it affect outside of those patriots? And most of those patriotic soldiers doing their duty are not liberals.
Civil war, that's another story. I don't believe coastal liberals with their pumpkin spice lattes are up to the task.
16 comments:
Is 'Stone Cold' Steve Austin a Republican?
The whole concept of a debt ceiling is bonkers.
its in a 1917 Law... so we would have to change that Law...
watch the debt ceiling spikes up bond prices and then the Fed will suddenly stop the QE out of left field because they dont want to pay that much for the bonds..
this would be just like they were all gung ho on QT in 2019 then all of a sudden out of left field they stopped it as they realized they were running reserves below their own 10% level...
they always do shit like that...
The country is fucked the divide is insurmountable.
People like Ted Cruz from the wild West know exactly how to exploit it. Treats Donald Trump like a long list cousin. He knows where the votes are.
Guns, small government and tea party.
Beavis and Butthead's back yard.
Don't you mean Hank Hill?
Beavis & Butthead were liberals.
Inflation has peaked.....
There are monetary targets, and one is inflation, the monetary fulcrum. Powell has disavowed monetarism.
Powell: “Inflation is not a problem for this time as near as I can figure. Right now, M2 [money supply] does not really have important implications. It is something we have to unlearn.”
Powell: “There was a time when monetary policy aggregates were important determinants of inflation and that has not been the case for a long time” Powell refers to M2.
These time-dependent mechanics are subject to the limitations of all logical models, analyses based upon broad statistical aggregates, namely, the data cannot be compiled accurately, defined fittingly, or applied in a manner which conforms to rigid theoretical constructs.
But the evidence suggests otherwise:
Parse date; roc in M*Vt; cpi
01/1/2020 ,,,,, 0.11 ,,,,, 257.971
02/1/2020 ,,,,, 0.03 ,,,,, 258.678
03/1/2020 ,,,,, 0.21 ,,,,, 258.115
04/1/2020 ,,,,, 0.40 ,,,,, 256.389
05/1/2020 ,,,,, 0.46 ,,,,, 256.394
06/1/2020 ,,,,, 0.50 ,,,,, 257.797
07/1/2020 ,,,,, 0.53 ,,,,, 259.101
08/1/2020 ,,,,, 0.56 ,,,,, 259.918
09/1/2020 ,,,,, 0.61 ,,,,, 260.28
10/1/2020 ,,,,, 0.68 ,,,,, 260.388
11/1/2020 ,,,,, 0.79 ,,,,, 260.229
12/1/2020 ,,,,, 1.26 ,,,,, 260.474
01/1/2021 ,,,,, 1.31 ,,,,, 261.582
02/1/2021 ,,,,, 1.41 ,,,,, 263.014
03/1/2021 ,,,,, 1.51 ,,,,, 264.877
04/1/2021 ,,,,, 1.60 ,,,,, 267.054
05/1/2021 ,,,,, 1.65 ,,,,, 269.195
06/1/2021 ,,,,, 1.79 ,,,,, 271.696
07/1/2021 ,,,,, 1.99 ,,,,, 273.003
08/1/2021 ,,,,, 1.97
09/1/2021 ,,,,, 1.90
10/1/2021 ,,,,, 1.91
11/1/2021 ,,,,, 1.76
12/1/2021 ,,,,, 1.87
01/1/2022 ,,,,, 1.92
02/1/2022 ,,,,, 1.49
03/1/2022 ,,,,, 1.23
04/1/2022 ,,,,, 1.14
05/1/2022 ,,,,, 1.06
Salmo Trutta...
Hank Hill. Beavis and Butthead
Doesn't matter either way.
The fracture in society is too deep. The divide insurmountable.
They'll try and bring the country together the only way they know how - War.
Iran ?
Oh yes, they are stupid enough to do it.
Spend a year on a seeking alpha..
Tell me it is not a psychologist waiting room filled with mental illness ?
There are a list of mental illnesses not even discovered yet by psychologists on Seeking Alpha.
It is a hotbed of madness !
Probably worst case scenario right now would be an acceleration in Delta variant but because of divided government there would be no fiscal policy response this time but non-govt would start to self lockdown again… so we would get an economic slowdown in the numbers which would start a decent bond rally then the debt ceiling would hit after extraordinary measures are exhausted in another month and create a supply shortage of Tsys and yields would go negative…
This imo is worst case scenario … Fed I guess would probably have to end QE abruptly without notice if yield curve inverted…
Not saying this is going to happen but is just worst case scenario…
Did war unite the country during Vietnam?
Now that it's a volunteer military, who does it affect outside of those patriots?
And most of those patriotic soldiers doing their duty are not liberals.
Civil war, that's another story.
I don't believe coastal liberals with their pumpkin spice lattes are up to the task.
We would have to be directly attacked like 9/11 again…
What's the going rate for cooking up a false flag attack?
"There are a list of mental illnesses not even discovered yet by psychologists on Seeking Alpha."
You should see the Covid fanatics on both reddit and skeptics.
Mad as a Hatter, and they don't even have mercury fumes to blame.
"You should see the Covid fanatics on both reddit and skeptics."
Best erotica stories (ok,ok -- porn stories) are on reddit. Mind you, I did find their discussion on DIY home coffee roasters very informative.
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