Oops! Down to 1.2% projected for Q4…. Let’s see if the MMT people repost this one … (Tip: don’t hold your breath waiting doesn’t fit the Democrat narrative).
On November 1, the initial #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q4 2023 is 1.2%. https://t.co/OnYxN0CQUF #ATLFedResearch
— Atlanta Fed (@AtlantaFed) November 1, 2023
Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast. https://t.co/ISzNblWfFW pic.twitter.com/u9CweBwBaD
Hard to see how a few $100B of additional free interest munnie paid to people who probably have zero propensity to spend it is somehow going to create this wonderful economy after same said rate increases destroy over half a $1T of bank capital… 🤔
Atlanta Fed was fairly prescient in Q3 and was bumping up their 3Q GDP Nowcast most of 3Q coming out pretty close when all was said and done for Q3 …… going to have to see if this happens again in Q4 … but they are now starting from a pretty shitty +1.2%
5 comments:
Savings' increase proportional to the level of additional fiscal flows does not mean someone doesn't spend. Earnings prove people are spending. The savings are just flowing to a different cohort.
Well someone is saving…
Bill discounts running at about $25b per month (300B annual) plus the increases in notes and bonds which is maybe another +100B or so…
So +400B interest but minus other fiscal reductions and now the tax increase on student loans…
Maybe rounds out to +250b or +300b…
Bank losses on available for sale securities at -$650B… put a 10x on that and somewhere there has to be a 6T markdown in asset values..
Can a few 100b of free munnie overcome that?
I think Atlanta probably dropped their number yesterday based on lackluster PMI which iirc is a survey… so it’s not objective…
We have to see how the quarter proceeds based on other measured more objective data…
Last quarter it kept creeping up to iirc +5.4% at the end… for Q3…
But it’s in a pretty deep hole at +1.2% to start.,,
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/27/stock-market-losses-wipe-out-9-trillion-from-americans-wealth-.html
“ Americans’ holdings of corporate equities and mutual fund shares fell to $33 trillion at the end of the second quarter, down from $42 trillion at the start of the year.
With major market indexes falling further since July, experts say losses from financial markets could total $9.5 trillion to $10 trillion.”
When you reduce bank capital (A-L) via the risk free rate increases the banks no longer have the capital to finance the financial assets at the higher prices so the prices have to come down …
They increase the risk free rate and thus reduce the NPV of all FINANCIAL assets then measure the price of REAL assets to measure their figure of speech “inflation”… so this is hard to understand if you have a Science Degree. While those people all have Art Degrees so maybe it makes sense to them in their deranged minds…🤔
The increase in the risk free ratein finance probably INCREASES the price of REAL assets because as you say the cost of credit is included in cost of production…
So these people are real morons …
We haven’t had to worry about these morons causing chaos by increasing or decreasing the rate for 15 years..,
We just had to worry what these morons were doing with risk free reserve asset levels “to lend out!”… that was bad enough..
But now I’m afraid Biden has let the rate lunatics back out of the asylum…
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/bank-americas-unrealized-losses-securities-rose-1316-bln-2023-10-17/
“ U.S. banks could be grappling with at least $650 billion of unrealized losses in their securities portfolios, according to an estimate from Moody's after prospects of interest rates staying higher for longer led to a bond market rout in the third quarter.”
I don’t see how they think destroying bank capital is somehow going to reduce the price of a gallon of gasoline… or a dozen eggs…
We need to establish a Moron Annex at Gitmo….
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