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MAGA: The Biden Admin Has Had Zero Coordination Between Fiscal and Monetary Policy
Current MAGA thesis… “inflation!”… “deficit too high!”… “the dollar is going down!”… same shit as always…. if Trump gets back in he’s going to have a lot of trouble with these Art Degree morons on his right flank…
"If Russia achieves a strategic breakthrough in eastern Ukraine, the Baltic states and Poland will send troops into Ukrainian territory,'
Der Spiegel claims.
This warning was given by the Baltic deputies to representatives of the German authorities, the tabloid reports.
The markets are simply not ready for the fact that Ukraine has turned into an existential threat to the US rules based order. Will now be defended at all costs.
The narrative and framing shift to this reality has been there for all to see. Ever since the fall of Avdiivka.
Europe is going to be thrown into the meat grinder. While the US tries to contain and focus on China isn't it now obvious ?
Or are you willing to be in the markets on the basis the West are bluffing ? That's not managing risk hoping these fools are bluffing and full of bluster.
I just can't see it. The US rules based order is at stake. I think a hell of a lot of people are fiddling while Rome burns. The US will throw proxy after proxy at it. While building up their own US forces.
It has never been a more dangerous time since the Cuban missile crises. People need to wake the fuck up !
Deficit or no deficit if the Baltic states and Poland send troops into Ukraine the markets crash.
You don't want to be long when that happens. Congress will dump all the stocks they hold first after being given the heads up. Then it will be free fall from there.
The markets are acting as if it is dealing with rational people here. These people are psychopaths. I just can't see them walking away from it. They have convinced themselves they are at war with Russia already.
I hope I am wrong. I'd be delighted to be wrong believe me. I just couldn't place a bet that these people are bluffing. We all know too well from experience how crazy they are.
This has nothing to do with emotion. I'm just listening to them all and watching their actions. They continue to escalate and double down with no reverse gear.
After the initial free fall maybe. It is going to collapse first because Putin has stated clearly any NATO troops on the ground then tactical nukes will be used not only on the NATO troops but on NATO supply lines in other countries. Then gentleman we are "officially" in WW3.
So you will be margin called out of existence. So you don't want to be long based on the size of spending or the deficit.
The way I see it, if the market was something that you could talk to and let it know that this is no longer a war to get regime change in Russia. Is now an existential threat to US hegemony. That will be defended at all costs.
The market would look very different than it does today.
Nobody long will survive the initial reaction. They'll all be trampling over each other as they run for the exit. Margin call after margin call.
Yes, the US will throw proxy after proxy at it and those with any money left will move into defence stocks as it will feel as if America are not even involved. Defence stocks will drive it instead of tech stocks.
It will be a lot worse for European stocks. Who are going to be thrown into the meat grinder. Any businesses that switches to providing for the effort will be strategically targetted. Hypersonic out of existence. Including the banks and financial sectors.
You would be better off sitting on your hands and keeping out of it and hoping and praying it doesn't go thermal instead of tactical.
If the West don't back down and have decided this is existential to them and they have already decided they are at war and ramping up to get ready. Which their actions and framing and narratives since the fall of Avdiivka says this is their plan. All based on the fact they think Putin is bluffing.
There are very few good options left. That doesn't involve more escalation and more death. Putin has to show he is not bluffing to get the West to reign their necks in. So how does he do that without starting a world war ?
Way I see it be has one option left. He will be forced to tactical nuke Western Ukraine that he is not interested in before NATO troops enter the conflict, before F16 that can carry nukes enter the conflict, before longer range missiles enter the conflict that can hit deep inside Russia.
a) It will create the buffer zone he is looking for. A contaminated zone.
b) Ukraine will surrender and he will get to keep the region's and Cities he considers Russian.
c) Nobody will start WW3 over Western Ukraine after they see he is not bluffing. At that point Europe will run for the exit. Tell the Americans they are in their own.
It will be the way the Americans thought strategically about Japan. Western Ukrainians will die but many more other Ukrainians and Russians will live as it will be all over and negotiations will begin. I bet the Kremlin has looked at this option.
Because, if they wait and wait and wait that window closes. If they don't grab that option above it will vanish. Then they will be left with no other choices to prove they are not bluffing than tactical nuking NATO troops in Ukraine and NATO supply lines in other countries.
That is a whole different ball game. That is the start of WW3.
If the West are not bluffing and keep escalating and doubling down and serious about sending proxy Poland and proxy Baltic states into Ukraine if the Russians break through. Putin will be forced to act.
Will it be before they enter to show he is not bluffing or after they enter.
My thoughts are all based on the assumption the US strategy has become ....
" Your bluffing, show us your not bluffing or we are prepared to start a conventional war against you and NATO are ramping up and getting ready Proxy your ass "
Which leaves Putin no choice but to deal them with a hard dose of reality and show in the least escalatory way he is not bluffing.
If the West won't back down because they want to see proof That he is not bluffing. He simply has no other option. Now that both sides see it as an existential threat.
The West is good at talking tough and then backing off when the chips are down. We will find, as we did during the pandemic, that the solidarity is fake once people have to be sent to die.
It'll take Russia about five days to finish off the wet Western armies.
Russia will never use nuclear weapons first. Far more likely is China embargoing all exports to the West until they back off.
I Suppose after just winning the election he went straight to China and then Belarus. To let them know if the West ain't bluffing he's going all in and check that his 2 biggest allies has his back.
The Belarus visit was very weird. A very strange press conference. It was, we need to get ready mode more than anything else.
Probably why North Korea another major ally just fired another missile near Japan in the last couple of days.
They all think The West has already decided on escalation. Although it could be a tactic to try and force Putin to negotiate.
The Russians have amassed another 200 to 300 thousand troops in the North Sumy region/ Belarus. With 500 thousand currently on the contact line and by the end of the summer another 700 thousand in reserve. Giving them a 1.5 million army. With 40 thousand volunteers looking to join every month.
Ukraine has about 400 - 500 thousand left. Getting roughly 5 thousand joining every month via forced mobilisation.
A break through is definitely happening it is just a matter of when.. Ukraine have run out of men, air defence and a lot of stuff they need.
Then we'll know for sure what the Wests intentions are. I'm 60/40 they are going to escalate as this is now an existential threat to the US rules based order. Especially after they all watched Putin's state visit to China.
They simply have no reverse gear. Hope I am wrong.
15 comments:
Quantitative easing. That's all these people know. Repeating terms that they don't even understand.
“We gotta pay it back! Pay all of it back!”
😂😂😂😂😂
"If Russia achieves a strategic breakthrough in eastern Ukraine, the Baltic states and Poland will send troops into Ukrainian territory,'
Der Spiegel claims.
This warning was given by the Baltic deputies to representatives of the German authorities, the tabloid reports.
The markets are simply not ready for the fact that Ukraine has turned into an existential threat to the US rules based order. Will now be defended at all costs.
The narrative and framing shift to this reality has been there for all to see. Ever since the fall of Avdiivka.
Europe is going to be thrown into the meat grinder. While the US tries to contain and focus on China isn't it now obvious ?
Or are you willing to be in the markets on the basis the West are bluffing ? That's not managing risk hoping these fools are bluffing and full of bluster.
I just can't see it. The US rules based order is at stake. I think a hell of a lot of people are fiddling while Rome burns. The US will throw proxy after proxy at it. While building up their own US forces.
It has never been a more dangerous time since the Cuban missile crises. People need to wake the fuck up !
Deficit or no deficit if the Baltic states and Poland send troops into Ukraine the markets crash.
You don't want to be long when that happens. Congress will dump all the stocks they hold first after being given the heads up. Then it will be free fall from there.
The markets are acting as if it is dealing with rational people here. These people are psychopaths. I just can't see them walking away from it. They have convinced themselves they are at war with Russia already.
I hope I am wrong. I'd be delighted to be wrong believe me. I just couldn't place a bet that these people are bluffing. We all know too well from experience how crazy they are.
This has nothing to do with emotion. I'm just listening to them all and watching their actions. They continue to escalate and double down with no reverse gear.
Foot,
These MFers shut down the whole fcking world economy in March 2020… AND THE MARKET RALLIED!
Hellooooo!
"You don't want to be long when that happens. "
Actually you do. War is good for business. You get to earn destroying everything and then earn building it all back up again.
What you'll find is that the US and the UK studiously avoid putting any people forward, but will be quite happy to supply the hardware.
If the markets panic then you get to pick up paying shares cheaply.
Stick to a traditional 4B portfolio for maximum effect - bombs, booze, baccy and bonking.
After the initial free fall maybe. It is going to collapse first because Putin has stated clearly any NATO troops on the ground then tactical nukes will be used not only on the NATO troops but on NATO supply lines in other countries. Then gentleman we are "officially" in WW3.
So you will be margin called out of existence. So you don't want to be long based on the size of spending or the deficit.
The way I see it, if the market was something that you could talk to and let it know that this is no longer a war to get regime change in Russia. Is now an existential threat to US hegemony. That will be defended at all costs.
The market would look very different than it does today.
Nobody long will survive the initial reaction. They'll all be trampling over each other as they run for the exit. Margin call after margin call.
Yes, the US will throw proxy after proxy at it and those with any money left will move into defence stocks as it will feel as if America are not even involved. Defence stocks will drive it instead of tech stocks.
It will be a lot worse for European stocks. Who are going to be thrown into the meat grinder. Any businesses that switches to providing for the effort will be strategically targetted. Hypersonic out of existence. Including the banks and financial sectors.
You would be better off sitting on your hands and keeping out of it and hoping and praying it doesn't go thermal instead of tactical.
If the West don't back down and have decided this is existential to them and they have already decided they are at war and ramping up to get ready. Which their actions and framing and narratives since the fall of Avdiivka says this is their plan. All based on the fact they think Putin is bluffing.
There are very few good options left. That doesn't involve more escalation and more death. Putin has to show he is not bluffing to get the West to reign their necks in. So how does he do that without starting a world war ?
Way I see it be has one option left. He will be forced to tactical nuke Western Ukraine that he is not interested in before NATO troops enter the conflict, before F16 that can carry nukes enter the conflict, before longer range missiles enter the conflict that can hit deep inside Russia.
a) It will create the buffer zone he is looking for. A contaminated zone.
b) Ukraine will surrender and he will get to keep the region's and Cities he considers Russian.
c) Nobody will start WW3 over Western Ukraine after they see he is not bluffing. At that point Europe will run for the exit. Tell the Americans they are in their own.
It will be the way the Americans thought strategically about Japan. Western Ukrainians will die but many more other Ukrainians and Russians will live as it will be all over and negotiations will begin. I bet the Kremlin has looked at this option.
Because, if they wait and wait and wait that window closes. If they don't grab that option above it will vanish. Then they will be left with no other choices to prove they are not bluffing than tactical nuking NATO troops in Ukraine and NATO supply lines in other countries.
That is a whole different ball game. That is the start of WW3.
If the West are not bluffing and keep escalating and doubling down and serious about sending proxy Poland and proxy Baltic states into Ukraine if the Russians break through. Putin will be forced to act.
Will it be before they enter to show he is not bluffing or after they enter.
My money is on before.
The market hasn't priced in tactical nukes going off in Western Ukraine "before" NATO boots on the ground.
For me, this is the only option Russia has left to prove to the West they are not bluffing. More importantly without starting WW3.
My thoughts are all based on the assumption the US strategy has become ....
" Your bluffing, show us your not bluffing or we are prepared to start a conventional war against you and NATO are ramping up and getting ready Proxy your ass "
Which leaves Putin no choice but to deal them with a hard dose of reality and show in the least escalatory way he is not bluffing.
If the West won't back down because they want to see proof That he is not bluffing. He simply has no other option. Now that both sides see it as an existential threat.
It has never been a more dangerous time since the Cuban missile crises. People need to wake the fuck up !
Yet here you are, playing the markets.
Unlike most people, you have money to play the markets.
Maybe you need to wake up.
The West is good at talking tough and then backing off when the chips are down. We will find, as we did during the pandemic, that the solidarity is fake once people have to be sent to die.
It'll take Russia about five days to finish off the wet Western armies.
Russia will never use nuclear weapons first. Far more likely is China embargoing all exports to the West until they back off.
“China embargoing all exports to the West”
MAGA dream scenario…
I Suppose after just winning the election he went straight to China and then Belarus. To let them know if the West ain't bluffing he's going all in and check that his 2 biggest allies has his back.
The Belarus visit was very weird. A very strange press conference. It was, we need to get ready mode more than anything else.
Probably why North Korea another major ally just fired another missile near Japan in the last couple of days.
They all think The West has already decided on escalation. Although it could be a tactic to try and force Putin to negotiate.
The Russians have amassed another 200 to 300 thousand troops in the North Sumy region/ Belarus. With 500 thousand currently on the contact line and by the end of the summer another 700 thousand in reserve. Giving them a 1.5 million army. With 40 thousand volunteers looking to join every month.
Ukraine has about 400 - 500 thousand left. Getting roughly 5 thousand joining every month via forced mobilisation.
A break through is definitely happening it is just a matter of when.. Ukraine have run out of men, air defence and a lot of stuff they need.
Then we'll know for sure what the Wests intentions are. I'm 60/40 they are going to escalate as this is now an existential threat to the US rules based order. Especially after they all watched Putin's state visit to China.
They simply have no reverse gear. Hope I am wrong.
You are wrong. Two years of Russia's war of attrition have driven so-called 'analysts' bonkers.
I stopped listening to Scott Ritter, Larry Johnson et al. a year ago.
There is no existential threat to Russia.
Europe is in Washington's pocket, as planned.
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