Andrew G Haldane — Everyday economics

Link to PDF.

BIS
Andrew G Haldane: Everyday economics
Speech by Mr Andrew G Haldane, Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bank of England, at the Nishkam High School, Birmingham, 27 November 2017

Andrew G Haldane — Rethinking financial stability

Speech by Mr Andrew G Haldane, Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bank of England, (co-authored with David Aikman, Sujit Kapadia and Marc Hinterschweiger), at the "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy IV" Conference, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington DC, 12 October 2017.

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Andrew G Haldane: Rethinking financial stability

Andrew G Haldane — Whose recovery?

It is a great pleasure to be here in Port Talbot. I want to discuss the UK’s economic fortunes. The past few weeks have been dominated by the run-up to the EU referendum vote and its aftermath. This has generated considerable uncertainty about the economy, about policy and about politics – a heady cocktail. I will come to those uncertainties, and their implications for monetary policy, at the end. But I wanted to start by assessing the UK’s economic recovery so far, as this provides important context for what happens next…

BIS
Andrew G Haldane: Whose recovery?
Speech by Mr Andrew G Haldane, Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bank of England, in Port Talbot, Wales, 30 June 2016.

Larry Elliott — Bank of England chief economist calls for big post-Brexit stimulus

The Bank of England’s chief economist has called for a big package of measures to support the UK’s post-Brexit economy, stressing the need for a prompt and robust response to the uncertainty.

Andy Haldane made it clear the Bank’s monetary policy committee would do more than merely cut interest rates from their already record low of 0.5% when it meets in August.

The Bank’s chief economist used a speech to warn that decisive action was required at a time when confidence had been dented by the shock referendum result.

“In my personal view, this means a material easing of monetary policy is likely to be needed, as one part of a collective policy response aimed at helping protect the economy and jobs from a downturn.

“Given the scale of insurance required, a package of mutually complementary monetary policy easing measures is likely to be necessary. And this monetary response, if it is to buttress expectations and confidence, needs I think to be delivered promptly as well as muscularly. By promptly I mean next month, when the precise size and extent of the necessary stimulatory measures can be determined as part of the August inflation report round.”

Ratchet up private debt with low interest and easy credit instead of public debt (increase fiscal deficit).

The Guardian
Bank of England chief economist calls for big post-Brexit stimulus

Larry Elliott

Bank of England — Capital in the 21st century – a discussion

• On 19 December 2014, the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the Bank of England hosted a discussion forum based around Thomas Piketty’s book, Capital in the twenty-first century, with a number of economists from academia, public sector bodies and private sector institutions.
• Four speakers presented research on various issues relating to inequality, including: access to education; wealth and taxation policy; and the role of governance and institutions.
• This article presents each peaker’skey arguments, and includes a summary of th eopen-floor debate that followed.

Overview

Inequality has risen within many advanced and emerging market countries. In the United Kingdom and the United States, the share of income that goes to the top 1% of earners has doubled since the 1980s, and their share of overall wealth has also risen over this period (Piketty (2014)). These trends and their public policy implications have been increasingly analysed by academics and policymakers. From a central bank perspective, inequality can affect the fragility of the financial system and growth in the economy.

On 19 December 2014, the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the Bank of England hosted a discussion forum on Capital in the twenty-first century, with its author, Thomas Piketty, Professor of Economics at the Paris School of Economics.(1)

At the event, four speakers presented research on a number of aspects of inequality.

Peter Lindert, Professor of Economics at the University of California, Davis, discussed the sources of inequality from an economic history perspective. Historical accidents can render economies more equal, and public policies are key to ensuring that they stay equal over time. A successful education policy is one of the key common factors among those countries that currently have relatively low inequality.

Orazio Attanasio, Professor at University College London, presented on the intergenerational transmission of inequality, based on research with Richard Blundell, Professor of Political Economy at University College London.

UK cohort data suggest that there is a strong correlation between the cognitive development of five-year old children and their subsequent earnings as adults. Since parental income influences children’s development, this result suggests that inequality can be passed down from one generation to the next.

Jaume Ventura, Professor at Universitat Pompeu Fabra, discussed inequality and macroeconomic models. A key challenge for macroeconomists is to build models that can explain the trends in inequality. Capital may have a ‘bubble’ component, which grows in line with anticipated capital gains. Empirical studies suggest that, on average, capital gains accounted for about 40% of the increase in capital to income ratios across countries between 1970 and 2010.

Timothy Besley, Professor at the London School of Economics, discussed how inequality can shape policy. Liberal democracies tend to have tax systems that rest on the notion that the rich accept taxation in return for secure and well-enforced property rights. But, in the worst case, that contract can be undermined by inequality.

This article briefly considers the links between inequality and central bank objectives, before presenting each speaker’s key arguments and a summary of the open-floor debate that followed. The views expressed do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of England, the Monetary Policy Committee or the Centre for Economic Policy Research.

Bank of England
Capital in the 21st century
Andrew Haldane and Rachana Shanbhogue of the Bank of England and Professors Orazio Attanasio of University College London, Timothy Besley of the London School of Economics, Peter Lindert of the University of California, Davis, Thomas Piketty of the Paris School of Economics, and Jaume Ventura of Universitat Pompeu Fabra

ht Mark Thomas at Economist's View