Bill Black — Ten Lessons We Must Learn from Charles Keating

The Savings and Loan debacle was the test bed for the epidemics of accounting control fraud that drove our subsequent financial crises. The debacle was the only one that was “successfully” contained before it could cause a financial crisis. The debacle was widely described at the time as the “worst financial scandal is U.S. history,” so the phrase “successfully contained” is obviously one that could spark disbelief. The critical modifier is “before it could cause a financial crisis.” The S&L debacle did not lead to even a mild national recession. It did hyper-inflate regional real estate bubbles that pushed parts of the Southwest region into a serious economic decline. The Enron-era frauds substantially contributed (in conjunction with the related collapse of the dot com bubble) to a $7 trillion fall in market capitalization and the fraud epidemics hyper-inflated the largest bubble in history and drove a Great Recession that is projected to cost over $20 trillion in lost production. The S&L debacle, therefore, allows us to understand not only went wrong, but also how to prevent things from going wrong.

This one is a classic.

New Economic Perspectives

Ten Lessons We Must Learn from Charles Keating

William K. Black | Associate Professor of Economics and Law, UMKC

Evidence Enron not an anomaly?

This numerical regularity [of digit ordered frequency] is known as Benford's Law, and specifically, it says that the probability of the first digit from a set of numbers is d is given by [equation]....



In fact, Benford's law has been used in legal cases to detect corporate fraud, because deviations from the law can indicate that a company's books have been manipulated. Naturally, I was keen to see whether it applies to the large public firms that we commonly study in finance,

Deviations from Benford's law have increased substantially over time, such that today the empirical distribution of each digit is about 3 percentage points off from what Benford's law would predict. The deviation increased sharply between 1982-1986 before leveling off, then zoomed up again from 1998 to 2002. Notably, the deviation from Benford dropped off very slightly in 2003-2004 after the enactment of Sarbanes-Oxley accounting reform act in 2002, but this was very tiny and the deviation resumed its increase up to an all-time peak in 2009.

So according to Benford's law, accounting statements are getting less and less representative of what's really going on inside of companies. The major reform that was passed after Enron and other major accounting standards barely made a dent.

Read the whole post at Studies in Everyday Life, Benford's Law and the Decreasing Reliability of Accounting Data for US Firms by Jialan Wang

(h/t Mark Thoma)