Jonathan T. Rothwell — Explaining Nationalist Political Views: The Case of Donald Trump

Abstract:

The 2016 US presidential nominee Donald Trump has broken with the policies of previous Republican Party presidents on trade, immigration, and war, in favor of a more nationalist and populist platform. Using detailed Gallup survey data for a large number of American adults, I analyze the individual and geographic factors that predict a higher probability of viewing Trump favorably and contrast the results with those found for other candidates. The results show mixed evidence that economic distress has motivated Trump support. His supporters are less educated and more likely to work in blue collar occupations, but they earn relative high household incomes, and living in areas more exposed to trade or immigration does not increase Trump support. There is stronger evidence that racial isolation and less strictly economic measures of social status, namely health and intergenerational mobility, are robustly predictive of more favorable views toward Trump, and these factors predict support for him but not other Republican presidential candidates.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 24

SSRN
Explaining Nationalist Political Views: The Case of Donald Trump
Jonathan T. Rothwell
Gallup, August 11, 2016

Timothy Taylor — Who's the Threat? Big Business, Big Labor, Big Government?

Convertible Economist
Who's the Threat? Big Business, Big Labor, Big Government?

Timothy Taylor | Managing editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, based at Macalester College in St. Paul, Minnesota

Elias Isquith — A new poll finds the GOP with the lowest party approval rating in Gallup history

A new Gallup poll finds the Republican Party with a favorable rating of 28 percent — the lowest rating either party has registered since Gallup first started asking the question in 1992. Along with being the lowest rating in 21 years, the 28 percent approval number also represents a 10-point drop since the Republicans’ previous approval rating of 38 percent.
In more bad news for the GOP, Gallup finds that “more than six in 10 Americans now view 

Salon

A new poll finds the GOP with the lowest party approval rating in Gallup history
Elias Isquith

See also

Ted Cruz argues GOP is winning the shutdown fight

Bill MeBride — Gallup: Sharp decline in Confidence

Calculated Risk

Gallup: Sharp decline in Confidence

Bill McBride

Jim Clifton, Gallup CEO — The New Normal: Big Unemployment

Think Big Data is the buzz now? At least one CEO thinks it is Big Unemployment.

LinkedIn
The New Normal: Big Unemployment
Jim Clifton | CEO at Gallup
(h/t Clonal in the comments)

Gallup: Public thinks that excessive spending is to blame for the deficit

Given a choice, Americans of all political persuasions are more likely to say that too much wasteful and unneeded government spending is the cause of the federal budget deficit, rather than too little tax revenue. Americans of all political persuasions also say cutting back on federal spending should be a major focus of efforts to reduce the deficit going forward.

Still, some emphasis on tax increases is part of the solution for almost half of Americans. Thus, it appears Americans would most likely tell their elected representatives to attack the federal deficit primarily using spending cuts, but with a secondary reliance on raising tax revenue.

Americans Blame Wasteful Government Spending for Deficit: Prefer cutting spending over raising taxes as way for Congress to reduce deficit

Uh oh. Get your shorts ready. The elevator is going down.