Zillow — Bottom not in on housing yet

Read it at Calculated Risk
Zillow: House prices declined 4.7% in 2011, Forecasts 3.7% decline in 2012

Zillow press release:

While it may be disconcerting for homeowners to see values nationally fell at a fairly rapid clip at the end of last year, that trend won’t last through 2012,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “The fourth quarter’s weak performance proves that pronouncements of a bottom in home values have been premature, but the good news is that 2012 will prove to be a better year than 2011. In fact, many markets show signs of a bottom this year, although a bottom may continue to elude the nation as a whole in 2012. Fortunately, against a backdrop of modest further declines in home values, we expect that home sales will pick up briskly this year as affordable prices bring more buyers to the table – especially investors and second-home buyers.”

Barry Ritholtz on "The Big Lie"

Ritholtz is a very smart and widely read blogger. His piece in the Washington Post talks about how a new narrative is being created that makes the perpetrators of the housing crash and ultimately, the Great Recession (the banks, Wall Street), look like the victims instead.

One group has been especially vocal about shaping a new narrative of the credit crisis and economic collapse: those whose bad judgment and failed philosophy helped cause the crisis. Rather than admit the error of their ways — Repent! — these people are engaged in an active campaign to rewrite history. A Big Lie is so colossal that no one would believe that someone could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. There are many examples: Claims that Earth is not warming, or that evolution is not the best thesis we have for how humans developed. Those opposed to stimulus spending have gone so far as to claim that the infrastructure of the United States is just fine, Grade A (not D, as the we discussed last month), and needs little repair. Wall Street has its own version: Its Big Lie is that banks and investment houses are merely victims of the crash. You see, the entire boom and bust was caused by misguided government policies. It was not irresponsible lending or derivative or excess leverage or misguided compensation packages, but rather long-standing housing policies that were at fault.

Propaganda that even Goebbels would be proud of!