Michael Hudson —Persian Powerplay

Cross-posted from The Saker: 

Introduction: After posting Michael Hudson’s article “America Escalates its “Democratic” Oil War in the Near East” on the blog, I decided to ask Michael to reply to a few follow-up questions. Michael very kindly agreed. Please see our exchange below....

Michael Hudson — On Finance, Real Estate And The Powers Of Neoliberalism
Persian Powerplay
Michael Hudson | President of The Institute for the Study of Long-Term Economic Trends (ISLET), a Wall Street Financial Analyst, Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City, and Guest Professor at Peking University

A New Pipeline Could Undo America’s Influence In Asia — Simon Watkins

From the moment that the U.S. re-imposed sanctions in earnest on Iran late last year, Pakistan has been looking at ways to resuscitate a deal that had been agreed in principle before the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) last May. This deal involved moving as much gas as Pakistan needs from Iran’s Asalouyeh into Pakistan’s Gwadar and then on to Nawabshah for further transit if required. At the same time, China has been in long-running discussions with Pakistan over the specific projects that Beijing wanted to place in Pakistan as part of its ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR) programme. All the while, the U.S. has been trying to stymie any such arrangement but OilPrice.com understands that the Iran-China-Pakistan deal is now back on, and with a vengeance.

China’s covert strategic deals are virtually always buried in interminably long anodyne statements that belie the true laser-focused intentions of Beijing and this time is no different....

Oilprice
A New Pipeline Could Undo America’s Influence In Asia

Simon Watkins

Cornering and Strangulating Iran Has Backfired on Israel — Alastair Crooke

What happens if the two premises on which Israel and America’s grand Iran strategy is founded are proven false? ‘What if’ maximum pressure fails either to implode the Iranian state politically, nor brings Iran to its knees, begging for a new ‘hairshirt’ nuclear deal? Well …? Well, it seems that Netanyahu and Mossad were so cocksure of their initial premise, that they neglected to think beyond first move on the chess board. It was to be checkmate in one. And this neglect is the cause of the strategic bind in which Israel now finds itself….

Strategic Culture Foundation
Cornering and Strangulating Iran Has Backfired on Israel
Alastair Crooke | founder and director of the Conflicts Forum, and former British diplomat and senior figure in British intelligence and in European Union diplomacy

RT — Weapons of mass construction? US sanctions Iran’s ‘terrorist-controlled’ building sector & ominous ‘strategic materials’ supply

The US has slapped new sanctions on Iran’s construction industry, targeting a number of “strategic” materials – like steel tubes and foil – and making sure the MSM amplify their vague hints of nuclear weapons and terrorism links....

Is this further eroding US soft power by coming across internationally as bullying?

RT
Weapons of mass construction? US sanctions Iran’s ‘terrorist-controlled’ building sector & ominous ‘strategic materials’ supply

Why Iran’s Strategy of Reversible Escalation Is Working — Eldar Mamedov

Donald Trump regards himself as the world's best negotiator. He obviously had never been to an Iranian market.

LobeLog
Why Iran’s Strategy of Reversible Escalation Is Working
Eldar Mamedov

See also

Valdai Analytics
Iran and the West: Where Does the Tanker War Lead? An Expert Discussion

U.S. Intensifies Pressure Against Iran, Targets Oil Tanker Network — Irina Slav

So much for freedom of navigation. "Control of the seas" is more appropriate.

The new sanctions, targeting an oil tanker network involving 11 vessels, 16 entities, and 10 individuals, according to Xinhua, aim to further squeeze Iran’s international oil shipments. The new penalties come days after Tehran said it will not return to the negotiating table unless it was allowed to export crude.

As French President Emmanuel Macron leads an effort to relieve the pressure on Iran, the signal from the U.S. could not be clearer and both Hook and President Trump have said as much.

"We can't make it any more clear that we are committed to this campaign of maximum pressure and we are not looking to grant any exceptions or waivers," Hook told media in response to questions regarding the planned US$15-billion credit line France was ready to offer Iran in exchange for oil shipments.…

Russia, China and India need to make some decisions.

Oilprice
U.S. Intensifies Pressure Against Iran, Targets Oil Tanker Network

Irina Slav

See also

TASS
Russian envoy calls for resolving Iran nuclear deal issue 'on the basis of French ideas'

Putin says special organization may be created to address problems in Strait of Hormuz

See also

Not just Iran.

Turkey hosts 3.5 million refugees from war-torn neighbour Syria and has warned it may open its gates to Europe unless a safe zone is established in Syria

Middle East Eye
Erdogan threatens Europe with Syrian refugees

related

Sputnik International
Erdogan Says He Cannot Accept Other States' Claims That Turkey 'Can't' Have Nukes

US Offered Millions To Captain To Help Seize Iranian Oil Tanker — Tsvetana Paraskova

Desperation make one look weak and stupid. Wrong message.

The interesting thing psychologically is that it implies that the one making the offer is money-driven and has little appreciation of honor. Selling out is just another part of the game in this twisted view.

Oilprice
US Offered Millions To Captain To Help Seize Iranian Oil Tanker
Tsvetana Paraskova

See also

SI
'B-Team Gangsters': US Confirms Trying to Bribe Captains of Iranian Tankers, as Tehran Decries 'Blackmail'

also

If at first you don’t succeed, spread some money around. The Financial Times reports that the US State Department is offering cash bribes to captains of Iranian ships if they sail those ships into ports where the US government can seize them.

Checkpoint Asia
US Now Offering $15 Million to Captains of Iranian Tankers If They Sail Them Into Ports Where the US Can Seize Them

Thomas L. Price

US Sanctions Are Designed to Kill — Kevin Cashman & Cavan Kharrazian

Sanctions are being used against some countries as economic warfare rather than primarily political pressure, and there will be casualties as in any war including "collateral damage." Some people will die. The perps know this.

It should be clear that the United States is uniquely positioned to choke off imports and exports from a targeted country using sanctions with deep, negative consequences for that country’s economy, as well as severe constraints on its government’s ability to address economic problems.

In Iran’s case, US sanctions mean that production of oil — a vital export — is in free fall, unemployment is on the rise, and record inflation due to scarce imports has made it harder for everyday Iranians to buy basic goods and access life-saving medicine. Recent reports have detailed harrowing stories of hospitals running out of crucial cancer medicinesand patients struggling to afford or even find their prescriptions. As in Venezuela and other targeted countries, US sanctions undoubtedly have a human toll associated with them, which will only grow as time goes on. This human impact is one of the main reasons that experts in international law argue unilateral sanctions are illegal under the United Nations Charter and international human rights law.
While Iran has been exploring alternative ways of exporting and importing goods, it’s unclear what more it could do absent relief from sanctions. Even so, US officials will typically place responsibility for the social and economic problems resulting from the sanctions on the Iranian government, as Hook does. But Trump’s comments are more revealing. Sanctions only work because they cause [indiscriminate] suffering in the first place. In effect, the United States is risking — and sometimes ending — the lives of thousands of Iranians with the hope that the Iranian government acquiesces to its demands or is replaced by a more compliant government. That the United States could carry out such a strategy in the first place should raise serious questions among concerned US citizens and within the international community, especially among those who respect international law.

Jacobin
US Sanctions Are Designed to Kill
Kevin Cashman, senior associate at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC., and Cavan Kharrazian, researcher at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC.

The CIA’s Dark Prince Doesn’t Want War With Iran — Simon Watkins

Opening Panadora's box. And because the Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya affairs were so successful. Iran would potentially be far worse, not least owing to oil price.

Oilprice.com
The CIA’s Dark Prince Doesn’t Want War With Iran

Simon Watkins

How Tehran fits into Russia-China strategy — Pepe Escobar

Complex doesn’t even begin to describe the positioning of Iran-Russia in the geopolitical chessboard. What’s clear in our current, volatile moment is that they’re partners, as I previously reported. Although not strategic partners, as in the Russia-China tie-up, Russia-China-Iran remain the crucial triad in the ongoing, multi-layered, long-term Eurasia integration process.

A few days after our Asia Times report, an article – based on “senior sources close to the Iranian regime” and crammed with fear-mongering, baseless accusations of corruption and outright ignorance about key military issues – claimed that Russia would turn the Iranian ports of Bandar Abbas and Chabahar into forward military bases complete with submarines, Spetsnaz special forces and Su-57 fighter jets, thus applying a “stranglehold” to the Persian Gulf.

For starters, “senior sources close to the Iranian regime” would never reveal such sensitive national-security details, much less to Anglo-American foreign media. In my own case, even though I have made several visits to Iran while consistently reporting on Iran for Asia Times, and even though authorities at myriad levels know where I’m coming from, I have not managed to get answers from Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps generals to 16 detailed questions I sent nearly a month ago. According to my interlocutors, these are deemed “too sensitive” and, yes, a matter of national security.

Predictably, the report was fully debunked....

Asia Times
How Tehran fits into Russia-China strategy
Pepe Escobar

Moon of Alabama — No, There Will Be No Russian Base In Iran

A somewhat weird report published at Oilprice.com claims that Russia will station troops, ships and fighter jets in Iran. The piece was reproduced at Yahoo.com and Zerohedge even as it is obviously bonkers....

Moon of Alabama
No, There Will Be No Russian Base In Iran

Russia Gains Stranglehold Over Persian Gulf — Simon Watkins

Leaving aside the sensational headline, the article is about a putative recent agreement between Iran and Russia for Russia to participate more actively in Iran, as it has long done in Syria. Simon Watkins gives specifics he claims he has been made privy to. He seems to be in a position to have the connections.

Oilprice.com
Russia Gains Stranglehold Over Persian Gulf
Simon Watkins, formerly Head of Forex Institutional Sales and Trading for Credit Lyonnais, Director of Forex at Bank of Montreal, Head of Weekly Publications and Chief Writer for Business Monitor International, Head of Fuel Oil Products for Platts, and Global Managing Editor of Research for Renaissance Capital in Moscow

Attack on Iran would be an attack on Russia — Pepe Escobar

Russia is meticulously advancing Eurasian chessboard moves that should be observed in conjunction, as Moscow proposes to the Global South an approach diametrically opposed to Western sanctions, threats and economic war. Here are three recent examples....

Asia Times
Attack on Iran would be an attack on Russia

Pepe Escobar

To Think Outside the Box, It Helps First to Understand What’s IN the Box — Alastair Crooke

President Trump doesn't seem to have any idea of what is in the box. He may find out soon.

Strategic Culture Foundation
To Think Outside the Box, It Helps First to Understand What’s IN the Box
Alastair Crooke | founder and director of the Conflicts Forum, and former British diplomat and senior figure in British intelligence and in European Union diplomacy

Elijah J. Magnier — Iran and Trump on the edge of the abyss

Good explanation of really went down.

Elijah J. Magnier — Middle East Politics
Iran and Trump on the edge of the abyss
Elijah J. Magnier

See also

Strategic Culture Foundation
Iran goes for “maximum counter-pressure”

Pepe Escobar

Also

Gold, Goats 'N Guns
Who Survives the Iran Counter-Offensive?
Tom Luongo

Also

India Punchline
US credibility dented in Iran standoff
M. K. Bhadrakumar | retired diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service

Also

Moon of Alabama
White House Pushes 'Trump Pulled Back' Story - He Likely Never Approved To Strike Iran

Also

RT
‘If Trump doesn’t want war, he has to ease sanctions’ – Iranian presidential adviser

RT
Iran refrained from targeting US plane with 35 on board flying beside downed drone – commander

RT
Iran has ‘indisputable’ evidence US drone violated airspace, FM says

This Is How The U.S. Plans To Cripple Iran’s Economy — Simon Watkins

With sanctions re-imposed on Iran’s oil exports last year and recently applied in part to its petrochemicals exports as well, the U.S. is now looking to roll out the next phase of its sanctions plan against the Islamic Republic. This is to gradually employ increasingly tight sanctions on Iran’s gas sector, whilst ensuring that Europe’s mechanism for enabling ongoing business with Iran does not succeed. These policies taken together are aimed at limiting Iran’s energy export revenues to no more than US$14 billion per year, a senior energy source who works closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry told OilPrice.com last week. “This is the level of revenue targeted by the U.S. as being required to catalyse a popular uprising to remove the current regime in Tehran but not to cause an outright humanitarian disaster,” he added.…

The ultimate fall-back position for the U.S. – actual military intervention against Iran – remains an option, said the Iran source who added that: “The U.S. is at 90% operational readiness for full military action if necessary.” Any real or false flag action – along similar lines to the recent incidents involving oil tankers in and around the Persian Gulf – would suffice as catalysts to engage militarily but the preferred option, said the source, remains a “war of attrition” against Iran. “If the U.S. cuts all energy related revenues down to the US$14 billion cap then the Iranian people will have a big decision to make,” he concluded.

Good luck with that strategy.

Oil Price
This Is How The U.S. Plans To Cripple Iran’s Economy

Simon Watkins

Declassified: The Sino-Russian Masterplan To End U.S. Dominance In Middle East — Yossef Bodansky,

Longish and detailed American view.

Oil Price
Declassified: The Sino-Russian Masterplan To End U.S. Dominance In Middle East

Yossef Bodansky, the Director of Research at the International Strategic Studies Association (ISSA) and Senior Editor of Defense & Foreign Affairs publications (including the Global Information System: GIS), was, for more than a decade, the Director of the US House of Representatives Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare

Iran at the center of the Eurasian riddle — Pepe Escobar

Iran is at the heart of the BRI-SCO-EAEU integration road map – the nuts and bolts of Eurasian integration. Russia and China cannot allow Iran to be strangled. Iran boasts fabulous energy reserves, a huge internal market, and is a frontline state fighting complex networks of opium, weapons and jihadi smuggling – all key concerns for SCO member states....

The article is about much more than Iran.

Iran is a a key piece in Eurasian integration. This is a major reaons that US strategist have wanted to begin with Iraq, Syria and Iran in the Middle East, Afghanistan in Central Asia, and North Korea in Asia. The ultimate goal is to divide Russia and China into smaller states that can be managed by the US-UK. Eventually, this is also seen as necessary for India, and India is already a fractured state. That would tie up US-UK global hegemony and establish the Anglo-American Empire's 1000 year rule of the planet. Ambitious, eh?

Asia Times
Iran at the center of the Eurasian riddle

Pepe Escobar

Iran

Moon of Alabama
Iran To Exceed Some Nuclear Deal Limits - EU Under Pressure To Fulfill Its Commitments

b

RT
US planning ‘tactical assault’ on Iran in response to 'tanker attack' — report

RT
Trump not in control of Iran policy, should perhaps fire Bolton – EU foreign policy chief’s adviser

Trump offered to suspend sanctions while negotiating with Iran, Khamenei rejected the offer: more attacks expected Elijah J. Magnier

Trump's negotiating strategy with Iran is not working as planned. Instead of being forced into submission by sanctions, Iran has concluded that it is in its interest to go to war if need be rather than to submitt. Since this would driving the price of oil up to level that would threaten the collapse of the global economy, Iran appears to be gaming the risk of war on the assumption that POTUS would not be willing to go there.

Trump often resorts to the "crazy person" tactic in negotiation. Iran can beat him at that game.

Elijah J. Magnier — Middle East Politics
Trump offered to suspend sanctions while negotiating with Iran, Khamenei rejected the offer: more attacks expected
Elijah J. Magnier

See also

Moon of Alabama
Iran Decided To Put Maximum Pressure On Trump - Here Is How It Will Do It

How Trump's "Maximum Pressure" Campaign Against Iran Now Works Against Him

b

See also

Gold, Goats 'n Guns
Did the B-Team Overplay its Hand Against Iran?

Tom Luongo

Also

India Punchline
Iran can be Trump’s nemesis
M. K. Bhadrakumar | retired diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service