Showing posts with label Rogoff and Reinhart. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rogoff and Reinhart. Show all posts

Thursday, September 5, 2019

The ladder of social science reasoning, 4 statements in increasing order of generality, or Why didn’t they say they were sorry when it turned out they’d messed up? — Andrew Gelman


Reinhart and Rogoff. Why didn't they take responsibility, a student asked Andrew Gelman. Statistics professor Gelman answers:  It wasn't actually about the data in the minds of R & R, so being wrong about it apparently made no significant difference to them. Empirical result? Meh.

Rationalists, or just ideologues with a cognitive bias?

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
The ladder of social science reasoning, 4 statements in increasing order of generality, or Why didn’t they say they were sorry when it turned out they’d messed up?
Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics Center, Columbia University

See also

Paper by Mohsen Javdani and Ha-Joon Chang
Marginal Revolution
Ideological bias and argument from authority among economists
Tyler Cowen | Holbert C. Harris Chair of Economics at George Mason University and serves as chairman and general director of the Mercatus Center

Thursday, January 2, 2014

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard — IMF paper warns of 'savings tax' and mass write-offs as West's debt hits 200-year high


Rogoff and Reinhart back with the fear mongering over excessive public debt. Again, they do not distinguish among different monetary regimes. Evans-Pritchard falls for it.
The weaker eurozone states are particularly vulnerable to default because they no longer have their own sovereign currencies, putting them in the same position as emerging countries that borrowed in dollars in the 1980s and 1990s. Even so, nations have defaulted through history even when they do borrow in their own currency.
Right, on the gold standard or if they peg to another currency, there are political factors such as war involved, or the leadership is too incompetent to know what to do — or are poorly advised.
The clear implication of the IMF paper is that Germany and the creditor core would do better to bite the bullet on big write-offs immediately rather than buying time with creeping debt mutualisation.

Morons or Peterson flakes?

The Telegraph
IMF paper warns of 'savings tax' and mass write-offs as West's debt hits 200-year high
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard