Matt Taibbi — Taibbi: Russia’s Biggest Problem Will Soon Be Ours

Russia, you see, has a serious problem with population decline. They’re expecting a 28 percent plunge in women of childbearing age by 2032. Their population peaked at about 148 million, in 1991.

You might notice that as the year of the collapse of communism. After the revolution, a series of factors — including introduction to the joys of international capitalism, with the accompanying loss of free health care, spiking economic inequality, accelerated substance abuse, etc. — caused Russia to begin shrinking....

Correlation isn't necessarily causation, but ….

On the other hand, immigration is a mixed bag. In the US, non-whites are multiplying faster than white people. As a result, the demographics of the country are shifting, much to the dissatisfaction of those traditionalists that feel strongly about the European heritage of the US as what makes America different and is responsible for the greatness of the country.

Rolling Stone
Taibbi: Russia’s Biggest Problem Will Soon Be Ours
Matt Taibbi

Zero Hedge — Fourth Turning's Neil Howe: Why Millennials Aren't So Unique

Neil Howe looks at the economic aspect of demographics.

Zero Hedge
Fourth Turning's Neil Howe: Why Millennials Aren't So Unique

Tyler Durden

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard — Deflation supercycle is over as world runs out of workers

The demographic 'sweet spot' is vanishing. We are on the cusp of a complete reversal, spelling the end of corporate hegemony

When Charles Goodhart speaks it is important. He is one of the few people at the top of the chain that actually understands monetary economics and is MMT-friendly. So you'll probably want to read this, even if you don't pay attention to AE-P.

This is going to shift the conversation if it gets traction. Goodheart saying it and AE-P featuring itguarantee it will.

The world is in flux. The great leveling is already here in this view.

The Telegraph

Deflation supercycle is over as world runs out of workers

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Merijn Knibbe — Fast population decline in Greece. Is it following the Detroit example?

Elstat has published new population estimates for Greece. And what happened to Portugal, Ireland, Estonia, Spain Latvia, Lithuania, Romania or Bulgaria is happening to Greece, too.…

Which is a problem: Detroit went bust because its population dwindled from 1.7 million to 0.7 million – and the city council wasn’t able to cut financial obligations (including pensions) to a level which could be sustained by this much smaller number of people. In may of these countries this process is aggravated by, very low birth rates.

Real-World Economics Review Blog
Fast population decline in Greece. Is it following the Detroit example?
Merijn Knibbe

Eric Michael Johnson — On the Origin of White Power

A new book argues race and genetics explain “the rise of the West.” Bad science explains the downfall of its ideas.

Nicholas Wade is not a racist. In his new book, A Troublesome Inheritance, the former science writer for the New York Times states this explicitly. “It is not automatically racist to consider racial categories as a possible explanatory factor.” He then explains why white people are better because of their genes. In fairness, Wade does not say Caucasians are better per se, merely better adapted (because of their genes) to the modern economic institutions that Western society has created, and which now dominate the world’s economy and culture. In contrast, Africans are better adapted to hot-headed tribalism while East Asians are better adapted to authoritarian political structures. “Looking at the three principal races, one can see that each has followed a different evolutionary path as it adapted to its local circumstances.” It’s not prejudice; it’s science....

...Wade argues that genetic adaptation can explain the behavioral and societal differences we observe in human racial groups.

Wade’s hypothesis faces a distinct challenge since, unlike the evolution of hair, few complex social behaviors — especially in humans — have identifiable genetic components....

What makes Wade’s book so troublesome is that he offers no scientific evidence to support his racial hypothesis. None. In fact, Wade acknowledges himself that his ideas on this topic are “leaving the world of hard science and entering into a much more speculative arena at the interface of history, economics and human evolution.” 

Nevertheless, because he thinks academics have suppressed the importance of genetics and race in human history for political reasons, Wade charges ahead and concludes, confidently, that Western civilization is a Darwinian success story. ...

This selection pressure, Wade says, was an agrarian economy and the Industrial Revolution. Individuals who were more productive, and delayed their gratification by saving instead of spending, gained wealth at a faster rate and had larger families. (Wade cites one estimate from England suggesting that those with £1,000 or more at death had an average of 4 children while those with less than £25 had only 2). But, because there were a limited number of upper class families, most wealthy children had to marry beneath their station. These genetic entrepreneurs carried with them their industrious DNA down to the commoners....

If Wade’s argument is to be correct — that is, if genetics is to explain the transmission of social behavior throughout Europe and give rise to Western superiority — there would need to be evidence of strong heritability in the traits he thinks were important. Based on the evidence from Clark that Wade himself cites, this is not the case.

If the central thesis of Wade’s evolutionary narrative about the rise of the West is so flawed, his explanation for other races has even bigger problems....A Troublesome Inheritance has been roundly criticized by scientists and journalists alike. Biologists such as H. Allen Orr and Jerry Coyne have pointed out its many scientific problems. Statistician and political scientist Andrew Gelman has identified the “naivete” in Wade’s eagerness to assume a genetic cause for any change in social behavior. Following their debate, the anthropologist Agustin Fuentes observed, “Wade ignores the majority of data and conclusions from anthropology, population genetics, human biology and evolutionary biology.” Even Wade’s former newspaper, the New York Times, carried a review panning the book. Unfortunately, readers lacking a background in science or journalism may not so easily spot Wade’s many errors. This could lead to even more troublesome issues given the excitement the book has generated among those predisposed to accept its conclusions.

Why is this important and why are we going to be hearing a lot more about it in general? Changing demographics. The percentage of white in total population is shrinking and also the percentage f whites in some traditionally predominant white countries. Moreover, with the emerging world, well, emerging, the power structure is shifting, albeit slowly away from white domination for the first time since the Industrial Revolution and modern technological innovation, especially military but also economic. With white losing their edge comes the inevitable reaction. We are only at the beginning stage of a powerful trend that will shape history.

Again, it comes down to power and loss of power.

Scientific American
On the Origin of White Power
Eric Michael Johnson
(h/t Brad DeLong)

Ta-Nehisi Coates — The Secret Lives of Inner-City Black Males

Paul Ryan's explanation for urban poverty isn't much different from Barack Obama's. Why did it make liberals so angry?

The Atlantic
The Secret Lives of Inner-City Black Males
Ta-Nehisi Coates

There are two separate issues here. First is the racism endemic to the United States. Secondly, is the use of racism as a political tool by the GOP since Nixon's Southern strategy. Both are despicable but they are different.

There is little more cynical that a politician claiming not to be racist using coded racist strategy and tactics for political advantage. That is why liberals were angry.

With regard to endemic racism that makes such a political strategy not only viable but worth resorting to, ending is a primary national challenge that America has not yet risen to. It's difficult because it has become endemic, but that's no excuse to ignore it, or, worse, blame the victims.