Showing posts with label demographics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label demographics. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 7, 2020

US Population Growth Down 1/3 in 5 Years, California Down 85%? — Wendall Cox


This is important in that one of the most significant factors influencing economic growth is population growth. The other significant factors are economic reproduction (upgrading, replacement and repair) and technological innovation that increases the living standard. That is to say, social reproduction is a function of individual reproduction.

New Geography
Wendall Cox

Monday, August 13, 2018

Alex Gray — What you need to know about the world's young people, in 7 charts

Every year on August 12, the United Nations celebrates International Youth Day.

It’s a chance to recognize the potential of young people to change the world for the better, and to highlight the challenges and problems they face.
World Economic Forum
Laurent Belsie

Friday, July 20, 2018

Sunday, March 4, 2018

Bill Mitchell — Poverty among the unemployment now close to 50 per cent in the EU

Last week, Eurostat released it updated data covering people who are at risk of monetary poverty. In the press release/news page (February 26, 2018) – Almost half the unemployed at risk of monetary poverty in the EU – we learn that 48.7 per cent of unemployed persons in the EU “were at risk of poverty” in 2016, even “after social transfers” were taken into account. The situation has deteriorated significantly since 2005 as a result of the impacts of the GFC and the policy response taken by the European Commission and the Member States (under the EC’s thumb). While the usual suspects perform badly on these indicators (Spain, Greece, Italy), a stark result is that 70.8 per cent of German unemployed persons are at risk of poverty. This proportion has jumped from 40.9 per cent in 2005 (a 29.9 percentage point shift). So, even in the strongest Eurozone economy, the policy frameworks are delivering terrible outcomes. Increasing divergence and inequality and rising social exclusion are the most striking characteristics of the 13 years of European Union history since 2005. It doesn’t look like a policy bloc that any sensible nation should aspire to be part off (or remain within).
A vast swath of the developed world is slipping toward Third World status as a result of policy decisions.

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Poverty among the unemployment now close to 50 per cent in the EU
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Vladimir Popov and Jomo Kwame Sundaram — Early Death in Russia


Sociological effects of economic change. Economic contraction results in social dysfunction that manifests negatively in individual lives.
The transition to market economy and democracy in the Russian Federation in the early 1990s dramatically increased mortality and shortened life expectancy. The steep upsurge in mortality and the decline in life expectancy in Russia are the largest ever recorded anywhere in peacetime in the absence of catastrophes such as war, plague or famine.
During 1987-1994, the Russian mortality rate increased by 60%, from 1.0% to 1.6%, while life expectancy went down from 70 to 64 years. Although life expectancy declined from 1987, when Mikhail Gorbachev was still in charge, its fall was sharpest during 1991-1994, i.e., during Boris Yeltsin’s early years.
In fact, mortality increased to levels never observed during the 1950s to the 1980s, i.e., for at least four decades. Even in the last years of Stalin’s rule (1950-1953), mortality rates were nearly half what they were in the first half of the 1990s.
Economic output fell by 45% during 1989-1998, while negative social indicators, such as the crime rate, murder rate, suicide rate and income inequalities, rose sharply as well, but even these alone cannot adequately explain the unprecedented mortality spike.
Yet, the Yeltsin period is represented as the "golden years" of Russia in the US, and the US elite is doing its best to return "the good old days" to Russia when "cowboy capitalism" ruled under the tutelage of the Harvard boyz, whose guiding principle was, "Let the market sort it out."

Vladimir Putin reversed the precipitous slide into system collapse and now the US elite thinks that his astronomical approval rating is the result of his control of Russian media, which he is running as a propaganda machine like Pravada was for the UUSR elite.
Meanwhile, the same syndrome begins to grip the US.
TripleCrisis
Early Death in Russia
Vladimir Popov and Jomo Kwame Sundaram

Monday, December 5, 2016

Keith Hart — Preface to the Coming World Crisis


Why history is important and WWIII will be difficult to avoid. 
Does anyone sincerely believe that the West (the Whites) will peacefully hand over world leadership to the non-white global majority, led by the BRICS, whom they coerced into joining the world society they made, while they had a virtual monopoly of capital, industry, markets and transport and had mastered genocide by remote means? Or that the United States would relinquish its empire without a fight, when it holds so many of the world’s winning cards listed above?
Human Economy Blog
Preface to the Coming World Crisis
Keith Hart | International Director of the Human Economy Programme at the University of Pretoria

Sunday, December 4, 2016

Gwyyn Guilford — Harvard research suggests that an entire global generation has lost faith in democracy

Provocative research. I have several thought about this.

First, was the meaning of "democracy" presumed or specified. If "democracy" is defined as "government of the people, by the people and for the people," then no nation today is living under democracy. Most liberal democracies are republics, which have been controlled by elites historically and this remains true today. Patricians are seldom much concerned about the interests of the plebeians other than with respect to getting their votes periodically in elections.

Secondly, if "democracy" is taken to mean "majority rule," then the United States is not a democracy, for several reasons. Most importantly, minorities are protected from the tyranny of the majority by constitutional rights and a judiciary as a check and balance on the legislative and executive powers. 

In the US, the senate is comprised of two senators from each state regardless of size or population. This protects state sovereignty in a federation. 

Less important — usually — is the role of the electoral college in balancing the interests of different demographic areas, chiefly the state with large urban populations and the states with large rural populations. But this becomes very important when the winner of most electoral votes does not carry a majority.

These aspects of liberal democracy result in some of the paradoxes of liberalism that result in dissatisfaction with political liberalism.

In addition, political liberalism must be harmonized with social and economic liberalism, which engenders further paradoxes of liberalism.

While the study suggests the rise of illiberalism, the obvious question is why this change in attitude has occurred, what it pretends, and how it can be addressed in liberal democracies.

Quartz
Harvard research suggests that an entire global generation has lost faith in democracy
Gwyyn Guilford
ht Jerry Lynn Scofield at Naked Capitalism

Saturday, April 23, 2016

Joel Kotkin — Where Millionaires Are Moving


You probably won't guess.

New geography.com
Where Millionaires Are Moving
Joel Kotkin | executive editor of NewGeography.com. He is the Roger Hobbs Distinguished Fellow in Urban Studies at Chapman University and executive director of the Houston-based Center for Opportunity Urbanism.

Monday, March 7, 2016

David F. Ruccio — Generation screwed


Millennials aka Generation Y feel the socio-economic burn and therefore the political Bern. Many of them are angry at what they view as screwed up world foisted on them by people they disrespect.

It's too early to tell much about things will turn out for Generation Z. Generation Z is something of a wildcard, being digitally native and socially networked, as well as multicultural and inclusive along with highly diverse. How this unique background will interact with their opportunities and challenges is yet to be seen.

These generations are poised to become the engines of change.

Occasional Links & Commentary
Generation screwed
David F. Ruccio | Professor of Economics, University of Notre Dame

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Jon Schwarz — Top GOP Pollster Frank Lunz: Young Americans Are Terrifyingly Liberal

According to new polling by right-wing political consultant Frank Luntz, Americans 18 to 26 are extremely liberal — so liberal that “the hostility of young Americans to the underpinnings of the American economy and the American government” should “frighten every business and political leader” and “excite activists for Sanders and, to a lesser degree, Clinton activists.”
Luntz’s poll found that young Americans are optimistic about both the country’s future and their own: 61% say the best days of the United States are still ahead of us rather than behind us, and 88% are somewhat, very or extremely optimistic about their economic prospects. But they have concerns, too. Their biggest, in order, are “corruption,” “greed” and “inequality.”…
The Intercept 

Saturday, February 20, 2016

Shiva Bayat — A Vote for Bernie Is a Feminist Act

Bernie Sanders’ victory over Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire primaries pointed to the overwhelming support Sanders has among young women—Sanders garnered 53 percent of the female vote overall, compared with Clinton’s 46 percent. Among women under 45, Sanders received 69 percent of votes; among women under 30, he got 82 percent.
Holy cow, Batman!

Slate
A Vote for Bernie Is a Feminist Act
Shiva Bayat

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Tom Phillips — China ends one-child policy after 35 years


The dragon just got a whole lot bigger. It was either that or expanding immigration. Japan can't get traction even with no limit on population. Whites in general are in the same boat, barely replacing themselves.
China has scrapped its one-child policy, allowing all couples to have two children for the first time since draconian family planning rules were introduced more than three decades ago.
The announcement followed a four-day Communist party summit in Beijing where China’s top leaders debated financial reforms and how to maintain growth at a time of heightened concerns about the economy.
China will “fully implement a policy of allowing each couple to have two children as an active response to an ageing population”, the party said in a statement published by Xinhua, the official news agency. “The change of policy is intended to balance population development and address the challenge of an ageing population.”
The Guardian
China ends one-child policy after 35 years
Tom Phillips in Beijing
ht Random in the comments

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Jeff Desjardins — The Chinese Growth Engine is Sputtering

The real problem for China is far more entrenched: the country’s demographics have been a ticking timebomb for decades. The one-child policy meant that at some point in the future, the country would have an aging population that could not be replaced in the workforce.

Unfortunately these demographic headwinds are now in full gear now and they are hitting China at the worst possible time. The size of China’s working population is set to begin declining.
China doesn't handle immigration well culturally. So enter the robots and outsourcing to the emerging economies, especially of Asia, which has the added advantage of pulling more developing nations' economies into China's orbit of influence. China is likely to utilize Latin American and Africa, too, at least eventually.

Visual Capitalist
The Chinese Growth Engine is Sputtering
Jeff Desjardins

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Timothy Taylor — China and India Overtake Mexico for Inflow of Foreign-Born US Residents


This is especially interesting in the immigrants from Mexico are chiefly unskilled or low-skill laborers while immigrants from China and India are highly educated and qualified in comparison.

Conversable Economist
China and India Overtake Mexico for Inflow of Foreign-Born US ResidentsTimothy Taylor | Managing editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, based at Macalester College in St. Paul, Minnesota

Thursday, April 2, 2015

Pew — The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050

Why Muslims Are Rising Fastest and the Unaffiliated Are Shrinking as a Share of the World’s Population
The religious profile of the world is rapidly changing, driven primarily by differences in fertility rates and the size of youth populations among the world’s major religions, as well as by people switching faiths. Over the next four decades, Christians will remain the largest religious group, but Islam will grow faster than any other major religion. If current trends continue, by 2050 …
  • The number of Muslims will nearly equal the number of Christians around the world.
  • Atheists, agnostics and other people who do not affiliate with any religion – though increasing in countries such as the United States and France – will make up a declining share of the world’s total population.
  • The global Buddhist population will be about the same size it was in 2010, while the Hindu and Jewish populations will be larger than they are today.
  • In Europe, Muslims will make up 10% of the overall population.
  • India will retain a Hindu majority but also will have the largest Muslim population of any country in the world, surpassing Indonesia.
  • In the United States, Christians will decline from more than three-quarters of the population in 2010 to two-thirds in 2050, and Judaism will no longer be the largest non-Christian religion. Muslims will be more numerous in the U.S. than people who identify as Jewish on the basis of religion.
  • Four out of every 10 Christians in the world will live in sub-Saharan Africa.
These are among the global religious trends highlighted in new demographic projections by the Pew Research Center. The projections take into account the current size and geographic distribution of the world’s major religions, age differences, fertility and mortality rates, international migration and patterns in conversion.....
Pew Research Center
The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050

Saturday, February 21, 2015

New Geography — 10 Most Affluent Cities In The World: Macau And Hartford Top The List

Two in Connecticut — Hartford and Bridgeport, and two in California — San Jose and San Francisco. California is a huge state, Connecticut is a tiny one, in fact almost tiny. Driving time to the north-south and east-west borders of Connecticut is a matter of hours. Same with Massachusetts, where Boston is located.

New Geography
Wendell Cox

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Daily Kos — GOP Columnist: The VERY Bad News FOR THE GOP in the GOP's Midterm Victory


The 2014 wave election was hardly the indication of coming GOP sweeps, as some conclude. The GOP looks to have a serious demographic problem. They have boxed themselves in with wedge issues that don't have mass appeal. Worse, there is no one on the horizon that can change this declining direction and survive a GOP primary under present conditions.

The upshot? The decisive elections will be decided in Democratic primaries between the neoliberal and progressive wings until the GOP can get its act together again. This is a pretty strong predictor for HRC in 2016 if the analysis holds. After 2016, the GOP collapses demographically unless they can regroup.

Daily Kos
GOP Columnist: The VERY Bad News FOR THE GOP in the GOP's Midterm Victory
murphthesurf3

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

William H. Frey — Enjoy it while it lasts! GOP base is still white and aging


Demographics.

On a personal note, I was walking on the Ped Mall in Iowa City, home of the University of Iowa, yesterday and remarking to myself how many multi-racial and multi-ethnic couples there were out and about. In addition, I have been observing more racially and ethnically mixed groups of high school students, too. It's obvious here at least that old divisions are falling, and America is "browning" gracefully.

Salon
Enjoy it while it lasts! GOP base is still white and aging
William H. Frey | demographer and senior fellow with the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution

See also

AARP Bulletin Today
Older Voters Tilt Strongly to GOP in Senate Battleground States
Richard E. Cohen

The nationwide total of nearly 20,000 respondents showed that Republicans led 56 percent to 43 percent among those 65 and older, and 52 percent to 46 percent among those ages 45 to 64. By contrast, Democrats led 55 percent to 43 percent among those 18 to 29, and 51 percent to 47 percent among those 30 to 44.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Roberto A. Ferdman — Why the South is the worst place to live in the U.S. — in 10 charts


Charts ranking the states on various criteria.

Rather concerning that the some seem dedicated to making the whole of the US look more like the South.

The Washington Post
Why the South is the worst place to live in the U.S. — in 10 charts
Roberto A. Ferdman