Showing posts with label denuclearization. Show all posts
Showing posts with label denuclearization. Show all posts

Friday, August 24, 2018

Zero Hedge — Trump Tells Pompeo Not To Go To North Korea: "Not Making Sufficient Denuclearization Progress"

Trump then blamed China, saying that "because of our much tougher Trading stance with China, I do not believe they are helping with the process of denuclearization as they once were (despite the UN Sanctions which are in place)." This is in line with Trump's complaint from early July in which he said that with respect to the denuclearization process, China "may be exerting negative pressure on a deal because of our posture on Chinese Trade."
Learning that unlike private deals, deals on the world stage among governments are interlinked and influence each other.

Zero Hedge
Trump Tells Pompeo Not To Go To North Korea: "Not Making Sufficient Denuclearization Progress"
Tyler Durden

Sunday, July 8, 2018

Moon of Alabama — Pyongyang Talks - How Pompeo Put The Cart Before The Horse


Good summary overall.
It is not discernible what Trump really wants. It might well be that he has not made up his mind, or that he changes his position as the days go by.
Of course, "what Trump wants" is quite discernible. He wants to win the negotiation and exactly what "winning" means is never in the interest of the negotiator to disclose. Negotiation is dialectical, involving a series of offers by the parties in a sort of ritual dance, "may the best dancer win."

Singapore got the negotiation process going. The US offer of the US would quite naturally be completely denuclearization as quickly as possible (Bolton had mentioned year). Quite obviously that would be rejected since capitulation was never on the table.

So now we will see whether the negotiation continues "in good faith," or Trump plays the "brinkmanship" card, which he is often wont to do.

Anyway the first round or actual negotiating a deal is now over, ending with "no deal."That was to be expected.

Strategically, this kind of negotiation is very different from business negotiation in that politics is involved on both sides, with both leaders having to bring along their supports and neutralizing their opposition.

For Trump, this first round was largely about neutralizing the domestic opposition by presenting a "hard line."

There are other players involved also, most importantly China, Russia and Japan, all of whom want to see the Korean peninsula denuclearized and North Korea opened up to commerce. This is Kim's goal and that of South Korean President Moon as well. This is consonant with the goal of the US.

However, the US does not want to see the Korean Peninsula become geopolitically neutral as do the other parties.  This will be the real sticking point if things get that far.

Moon of Alabama
Pyongyang Talks - How Pompeo Put The Cart Before The Horse

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Sunday, March 9, 2014

Al Jazeera — China draws 'red line' on North Korea

China has declared a "red line" on North Korea, saying it will not permit chaos or war on the Korean peninsula, and that denuclearisation is the only way to achieve peace....

"The Korean peninsula is right on China's doorstep. We have a red line, that is, we will not allow war or instability on the Korean peninsula," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters on Saturday, on the sidelines of China's annual largely toothless parliament.
Al Jazeera
China draws 'red line' on North Korea
via Reuters