Showing posts with label empirics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label empirics. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Mark Thoma — Why Economists Can’t Always Trust Data



Why economics is not a science, other than in very narrow studies where reliable data can be obtained with a reasonable degree of assurance. That excludes most areas of interest and contention in economics, the consequence that economics resembles philosophy more than science and ideology prevails in choice of assumptions and method.
This will likely improve in the Information Age, with Big Data and the development of AI. But we aren't there yet and probably never will be regarding historical data, where context has been lost.
The Fiscal Times
Why Economists Can’t Always Trust Data
Mark Thoma | Professor of Economics, University of Oregon

Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Merijn Knibbe — Gary Becker, a one trick pony?

One of the weak underbellies of neoclassical theory is of course the fact that, despite all efforts to estimate ‘revealed preference’, neoclassical economists have never succeeded in consistently estimating their core variables like ‘utility’, ‘the natural rate of interest’, ‘natural unemployment’ and the like. There is nothing neoclassical even close, or far, to the CRC handbook of chemistry and physics, the Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders or, when it comes to macro-economics, the System of National Accounts. And no, that’s not a neoclassical manual. Economic statistics are chartalist to the bone (it’s about flows and stocks of state-defined money, not about utility), have a totally different concept of unemployment than the one embedded in neoclassical macro DSGE models, are estimated following a bottom up approach, i.e. based upon agent based data and do not assume rationality or ergodicity (the economic phrase for predestination). Gary Becker did not succeed in improving this situation. This does not directly disqualify him as an economist but the fact that he, despite this fact, continued to push and glorify his method is weird. He tried to use the concept of ‘utility’ to explain all kinds of behaviour but as he could not estimate ‘utility’ – he failed. Neoclassicals do use data – but have to take recourse to results of other branches of science and economics to be able to do this. There is no independent body of neoclassical empirics.
Real-World Economics Review Blog
Gary Becker, a one trick pony?
Merijn Knibbe