Carola Binder — The Future is Uncertain, but So Is the Past

What does this tell us? People are just as unsure about inflation in the relatively recent past as they are about inflation in the near to medium-run future. And this says something important for monetary policymakers. A goal of the Federal Reserve is to anchor medium- to long-run inflation expectations at the 2% target. With strongly-anchored expectations, we should see most expectations near 2% with low uncertainty. If people are uncertain about longer-run inflation, it could either be that they are unaware of the Fed's inflation target, or aware but unconvinced that the Fed will actually achieve its target. It is difficult to say which is the case. The former would imply that we need more public informedness about economic concepts and the Fed, while the latter would imply that the Fed needs to improve its credibility among an already-informed public. Since perceptions are about as uncertain as expectations, this lends support to the idea that people are simply uninformed about inflation-- or that memory of economic statistics is relatively poor.

Quantitative Ease

The Future is Uncertain, but So Is the Past

Carola Binder | Assistant Professor of Economics at Haverford College

Brian Romanchuk — Yellen At Jackson Hole: Übergradualism Still The Baseline

Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole may or may not get Fed watchers excited, but it seems to me that there was not a lot of new information. She made some hawkish noises, and it seems that we are due for another rate hike this year. I think December is the most plausible time, but it could be as early as September. In any event, the exact timing of the hike does not matter; the Fed is still following an übergradual rate hike path (hiking at a pace well below 25 basis points a meeting). Her discussion of policy options was mainly useful for those of us who are entertained by the collapse into incoherence of mainstream economics.…

Bond Economics
Yellen At Jackson Hole: Übergradualism Still The Baseline
Brian Romanchuk

Jeff Cox — Fed economist: We talk too much to public with 'limited attention span'

When it comes to communicating with the public, the Federal Reserve may find it just talks too much.

That at least is the view of Dallas Fed economist Antonella Tutino, who believes "the public's limited attention span" makes lengthy and complicated Fed statements a detriment to effective communication.

"A central bank should be concerned about overwhelming the private sector with too many details in its pronouncements," Tutino said in an analysis on the branch's website. "In so doing, it runs the risk that the less-than-fully engaged public may misinterpret the statements, leading to an unintentional and counterproductive response."

Indeed, the Fed has experienced a communication gap with the public and the markets as it has tried to normalize policy after the extraordinary measures it took during the financial crisis.…

CNBC
Fed economist: We talk too much to public with 'limited attention span'
Jeff Cox

Cory Hoffman — Have the Bond Vigilantes Really Arrived in Russia or is the market simply following the lead of the Russian Central Bank?

So, I suspect that these recent rate hikes are not the result of the Russian Bond Market Vigilantes protesting Russian policies and the Russian Central Bank losing control but rather an example of the market rationally responding to the forward guidance of the Russian Central Bank.

Overlapping Consensus
Have the Bond Vigilantes Really Arrived in Russia or is the market simply following the lead of the Russian Central Bank?
Cory Hoffman

Jeff Cox — The Fed is making a major shift in rate policy

Goodbye forward guidance?

CNBC NetNet

The Fed is making a major shift in rate policy

Jeff Cox | Finance Editor

Bill McBride — What does Yellen's "around six months" mean?

Yellen reiterates prior guidance.

Calculated Risk

What does Yellen's "around six months" mean?
Bill McBride