Showing posts with label wage stagnation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wage stagnation. Show all posts

Friday, January 9, 2015

Henry Blodget — Way To Go, 'Capital'! You're Totally Crushing 'Labor'! A Few More Years Like This And You'll Win!!!

Specifically, I have observed that over the past three decades, more and more of this country's wealth and income have been consumed by a small percentage of the population — for lack of a better term, "the 10%" — while everyone else has gotten hosed. 
I have also observed that what's wrong with this picture — aside from romantic notions of sharing, teamwork, et al. — is that the 90% of the people in the country who are getting screwed are actually the customers of the companies owned by the 10%. Therefore, by paying themselves as much as possible and paying the 90% as little as possible, the 10% are in fact impoverishing their own customers.

At some point, when the 10% have finished extracting every ounce of wealth from the 90%, the 90% will simply have no money with which to buy the products and services of the 10% — at which point the companies owned by the 10% will collapse.
(Before that, though, we might also have a revolution, political or otherwise. Economic inequality and desperation like the kind we are developing has triggered many of those throughout history.)
Maybe. The top 20% account for 60% of the spending. The economy is less dependent on the lower 80% who are becoming increasingly marginal and "the poor" even expendable unless American converts from a service economy to a servant economy.

Business Insider

In  Revisiting Plutonomics, Barry Ritholtz suggest it is a good time to review the Citigroup report on plotonomy.
Ajay Kapur, global strategist at Citigroup, and his research team came up with the term “Plutonomy” in 2005 to describe a country that is defined by massive income and wealth inequality. According to their definition, the U.S. is a Plutonomy, along with the U.K., Canada and Australia. 
In a series of research notes over the past year, Kapur and his team explained that Plutonomies have three basic characteristics. 
1. They are all created by “disruptive technology-driven productivity gains, creative financial innovation, capitalist friendly cooperative governments, immigrants…the rule of law and patenting inventions. Often these wealth waves involve great complexity exploited best by the rich and educated of the time.” 
2. There is no “average” consumer in Plutonomies. There is only the rich “and everyone else.” The rich account for a disproportionate chunk of the economy, while the non-rich account for “surprisingly small bites of the national pie.” Kapur estimates that in 2005, the richest 20% may have been responsible for 60% of total spending. 
3. Plutonomies are likely to grow in the future, fed by capitalist-friendly governments, more technology-driven productivity and globalization. 
-The Wealth Report

Friday, November 7, 2014

Barry Ritholtz — One Chart Explains Democrats' Loss

Presidents tend to get credit for good economies and blame for bad ones. Of course, it's unfair to place the full responsibility for the lack of progress on Obama. The hangover from the financial crisis deserves much of the blame regardless of who was president. Families are still carrying lots of debt, while income isn't growing. And it would be disingenuous not to place some blame on Republican intransigence. The party's insistence on austerity at state and local levels has been a drag on incomes everywhere. Had Obama enjoyed the same level of government hiring and spending trends that George W. Bush had, the economy would be much stronger, and that ratio would be far less onerous. 
None of that matters. The Republicans tapped into dissatisfactionwith the Obama economy, despite how positive large parts of it look on paper. The average family has had no gain in income for six years and they are working harder to pay down the excess leverage from the 2000s.
Obama didn't address this. At least, that seems to be the message the Republicans got out, early and often. A diffuse anger toward Obama was tapped and in many subtle ways, directed toward this issue.
Regular readers know I am not big on forecasts, but I am going to make one here and now: The party that figures out how to respond to this issue in a way that resonates with voters will win the White House in 2016.
Again, "It's the economy, stupid."

Bloomberg View
One Chart Explains Democrats' Loss
Barry Ritholtz

Sunday, August 31, 2014

David Ruccio — What is inflation?


What is inflation? = What does "inflation" mean?

Many things, and different things to different people, since it is not an observable but an estimate based on choice of standards of measurement and subject to the limitations of measuring aggregates. There is no such "thing" as inflation, and economists even disagree over its technical definition and measurement.

Professor Ruccio is unimpressed with the official narrative:
My own view, for what it’s worth, is the real rate of inflation for consumer goods is higher than the official rate of 2.2 percent (over the past 12 months), thereby understating the extent to which working people are facing rising prices for the commodities they need to purchase in order to maintain themselves and their families. In addition, most people are receiving wages and salaries that simply are not rising much more, from one year to the next, than the official inflation rate. 
Therefore, it’s not surprising that people are feeling squeezed and find the kinds of economic policies advocated by mainstream economists quite strange—both the call for austerity by conservative economists (based on the idea that galloping inflation is right around the corner) and the call for more inflation (based on the idea that real interest rates should be negative, in order to boost economic activity). Neither policy—abounding as they are in metaphysical subtleties and theological niceties—would help working people who, right now, are facing both rising prices and stagnant incomes.
Then there is the issue of assets "appreciating" (good) but not "inflating" (bad) whereas goods prices are never said to "appreciate" but only "inflate." Disconnect?

Occasional Links & Commentary
What is inflation?
David F. Ruccio | Professor of Economics University of Notre Dame Notre Dame

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Rana Foroohar — America’s Real Economic Crisis Is Flat Wages

If you don’t get more people working, you don’t have the sort of wage competition that encourages firms to raise workers’ pay. And if you don’t have higher wages, you won’t have more robust consumption spending (which encourages firms to hire; it’s a snowballing cycle). As I have written many times, the single most worrisome thing in the economy right now is that wages are flat and have been for five years now. You don’t have to be an economist to see that you can’t have a robust recovery in an economy that is 70% consumer spending when most people haven’t gotten a raise since the financial crisis began....
Ultimately, you need wages, not just stock prices, to go up if you want a real recovery. And in order to do that, you need businesses to feel that demand is rising so they’ll start spending [on investment].
Category: Doh.

Time
Foroohar: America’s Real Economic Crisis Is Flat Wages
Rana Foroohar

Most significantly the previously indefatigable US consumer is tapped out. This has ominous implications for a global economy that has not decoupled from the US.


Sunday, February 24, 2013

Thomas L. Hungerford on rising inequality due to tax policy

Abstract:  
This paper examines changes in after-tax income inequality among tax filers between 1991 and 2006. In particular, how changes in wages, capital income, and tax policy contribute to changes in income inequality is investigated. To examine the role of these three possible contributors to the increase in income inequality, the Gini coefficient is decomposed by income source using the method developed by Lerman and Yitzhaki (1985). The Gini coefficient of after-tax income increased by 15 percent (0.071 points) between 1991 and 2006. By far, the largest contributor to this increase was changes in income from capital gains and dividends. Changes in wages had an equalizing effect over this period as did changes in taxes. Most of the equalizing effect of taxes took place after the 1993 tax hike; most of the equalizing effect, however, was reversed after the 2001 and 2003 Bush-era tax cuts. Similar results are obtained with other inequality measures.
SSRN

Changes in Income Inequality Among U.S. Tax Filers between 1991 and 2006: The Role of Wages, Capital Income, and Taxes
Thomas L. Hungerford — January 23, 2013