Friday, March 2, 2012

Peter Cooper — Public Spending Cuts in a Great Recession


Interest in modern monetary theory and related ideas continues to grow, which is great to see. The efforts of the academic modern monetary theorists and their fellow travelers and supporters continue to bring to light the economic challenges we face and the lies we are all up against. The thought that there will be readers who are relatively new to the approach reminds me that occasionally it is worth getting back to some of the basic insights. The purpose of this post is to illustrate a simple point. The simple point is that it is misguided to cut back public expenditure on services such as libraries, education, health services, and so on, as well as to slash welfare protections for those worst affected by the crisis, when private-sector activity is depressed. In a modern money system – one with a flexible exchange-rate fiat currency – financial affordability is not an issue. The government, as sovereign currency issuer, is not like a household.
The only sense in which affordability can be of concern to a sovereign currency issuer is in terms of real resources. In particular, if the available labor force became stretched to the limit, it might be hard to attract or retain sufficient staff to keep public libraries, schools, hospitals, and other publicly funded or subsidized social institutions operating at current levels without the measures being inflationary. At that point, the community would need to make a choice between cutting the provision of these services or raising taxes to free up resources currently utilized in the private sector. But if, instead, overall demand is weak, and unemployment is high, there is no need for generalized government spending cuts or tax increases, and to implement either would be foolish.
Read it at heteconomist.com
Public Spending Cuts in a Great Recession
by Peter Cooper

AFP — GM suspends production of Chevy Volt due to weak demand


General Motors said Friday it has suspended production of its electric Chevy Volt for five weeks in order to match supply to weak demand.
“We’re going to take five weeks of downtime at the plant as we are going to build to what the market demands,” spokeswoman Michelle Bunker Malcho told AFP.
“We had a great month in February (over 1,000 in sales) and are very pleased with what we see happening in the marketplace especially with Volt now being eligible for HOV lanes in California.”
GM sold 8,000 Volts last year, less than the 10,000 units forecast in its first year.
Read it at Raw Story
GM suspends production of Chevy Volt due to weak demand
by Agence France-Presse

Bruce Judson — Are Bankers Capitalists?


As I have written before, capitalism involves four basic principles: absolute responsibility for anything and everything that happens to your company (i.e. total accountability), equal justice under the law, compensation based on the real value created for society, and competition, which involves failure and what is often called creative destruction....
By almost any criteria, the banks operate under rules that are so far from capitalism as to be unrecognizable.
 Read it at New Deal 2.0
Are Bankers Capitalists?
by Bruce Judson

Industry Donated Heavily To Iowa Lawmakers Who Pushed For Bill To Criminalize Undercover Farm Investigations


Read it at Republic Report
Industry Donated Heavily To Iowa Lawmakers Who Pushed For Bill To Criminalize Undercover Farm Investigations
by Zaid Jilani

Romm — Experts Say Keystone XL Won’t Do Anything For Gas Prices


Even TransCanada, the company building the pipeline, is careful not to claim the project will lower gas prices: “Prices are set on a global level,” writes the company in a fact sheet.
Read it at Climate Progress
Empty Promises: Experts Say Keystone XL Won’t Do Anything For Gas Prices
by Joe Romm

Joe Firestone — John Carney Doesn't Believe That Government Spending Can Achieve Public Purpose


Read it at Daily Kos | Money and Public Purpose
John Carney Doesn't Believe That Government Spending Can Achieve Public Purpose
by Joe (Letsgetitdone) Firestone

Iceland adopting the Canadian dollar? Didn't they learn anything?



Iceland’s fear of the euro collapsing has caused one of Iceland’s political parties to openly suggest the idea of going Canadian and dropping the idea of EU membership and currency.

Iceland just went through economic hell thanks to borrowing in other peoples' currencies.

They were thinking about joining the euro, but that idea is flagging. Good!

But now they openly discussing adopting the Canadian dollar as their currency.

Haven't they learned anything???

If Iceland keeps doing this stuff they won't need to wait for a really big volcanic eruption to wipe them out. They'll do it to themselves.

Greece: Recession hits January revenues


Hey, no kidding!  This is the second story out today from the AP via Yahoo! that unbeknown to them is reporting on the same phenomenon in the Eurozone:  Forced austerity resulting in an increase of the non-government sector savings desires.  Which by definition leads to a decrease in demand, decreased revenues and associated higher fiscal deficits else equal.

Pretty simple.

Bill Moyers and Joseph Campbell on Star Wars’ Mythological Influences


Keeping up on culture.

Watch it at TruthOut
Bill Moyers and Joseph Campbell on Star Wars’ Mythological Influences

Uneconomics


Robert Vinneau of Thoughts on Economics directs attention to "Mumbo Jumble: The underwhelming response of the American economics profession to the crisis by Philip Mirowski in a series titled "Uneconomics."

Read it at Our Kingdom — Power and Liberty in Britain
Uneconomics

Numerian — Just One Last Bubble, Please!


Read it at The Economic Populist
Just One Last Bubble, Please!
Submitted by Numerian

The Cambridge Capital Debates — Summary


Read it at Naked Keynesianism
(h/t "Lord Keynes" at Social Democracy for the 21st Century)

Nordhaus — Cost of delay due to climate denial


Read it at Climate Progress
Must-Read: Economist William Nordhaus Slams Global Warming Deniers, Explains Cost of Delay is $4 Trillion
by Joe Romm
Nordhaus: Suppose we were thinking about two policies. Policy A has a small investment in abatement of CO2 emissions. It costs relatively little (say $1 billion) but has substantial benefits (say $10 billion), for a net benefit of $9 billion. Now compare this with a very effective and larger investment, Policy B. This second investment costs more (say $10 billion) but has substantial benefits (say $50 billion), for a net benefit of $40 billion. B is preferable because it has higher net benefits ($40 billion for B as compared with $9 for A), but A has a higher benefit-cost ratio (a ratio of 10 for A as compared with 5 for B). This example shows why we should, in designing the most effective policies, look at benefits minus costs, not benefits divided by costs. [emphasis added]

FT — Monetary policy under attack as "redistribution"


As Warren Mosler has often said, there are winners and losers in the use of monetary policy by central banks, since interest rate changes favor either borrowers or savers. Well, now savers are rising up angry. BTW, I have been hearing this anecdotally recently from friends' complaints.
Monetary policy does not seek to redistribute, but cannot avoid it.
If society feels the need to compensate some of the current elderly population for the side-effects of QE, that is a matter for government. We could increase national insurance (not paid by pensioners) to raise pension levels for example or change annuitisation rules.
And if you still worry about the redistributive effects of the Bank’s recourse to QE, you should call for the end of independent monetary policy.
Read it at The Financial Times | Money Supply
Monetary policy and redistribution
by Chris Giles

"And if you still worry about the redistributive effects of the Bank’s recourse to QE, you should call for the end of independent monetary policy." This is exactly what MMT does, showing how its replacement by fiscal policy is a more efficient course of action and more effective in meeting public purpose, as well as more democratic and equitable.

Monetary policy under the control of politically independent central banks is both anti-democratic, since it involves redistribution without representation. It is also anti-capitalistic in that it involves a command system of price setting in which a government's monopoly power over currency is transferred to a small group of technocrats that are also "interested men" in Tom Paine's sense. Just how does this make sense economically, politically, and socially?

Yglesias on the positive-normative distinction in economics


Yglesias observes that in the view of Hillary Putnam, "The reason you can't rigidly separate positive from normative economics is that you can't rigidly separate claims of fact from claims of value in general. Human language is too laden with thick concepts that mix the two."
For the record, Ludwig Wittgenstein had already elucidated this point through logical analysis in Philosophical Investigations (1953).

Read it at Slate
The Positive/Normative Distinction In Economics Is Nonsense But It Doesn't Really Matter
By Matthew Yglesias

I disagree with Matt that it doesn't really matter. It matters hugely, because obscuring the pervasiveness of the normative and prescriptive in economics and claiming that economic orthodoxy is positive while heterodox economics is not is central to the rhetoric of propaganda designed to justify neoliberalism.

Ravi Batra points out that in eras ruled by acquisitors, intellectuals prostitute themselves for fame, fortune and a share in power by justifying acquisitive behavior to laborers, who make up a vast majority of the population. They do this not through sound reasoning based on true premises and valid logical form, but by obscuring their intent behind a facade of sophistical rhetoric and displays of "expertise" designed to confuse the less-educated.

As Steve Keen artfully shows in Debunking Economics, neoliberalism rests on the "smoke" of sophistical assumptions and "mirrors" of complicated mathematical models that do not represent actual conditions. Thus, the premises are not as represented and the conclusions are also drawn by extending the application of the modeling beyond its scope in order to to convince the rubes that they are getting screwed for "scientific" reasons and there is no alternative other than the boogeyman of "socialism," which "everyone knows" ends in totalitarianism.

Yglesias says, "I think a lot of people who think they disagreement with most mainstream economists about certain things have noticed that most mainstream economists hold a somewhat naive metaphysical position and think that if they can debunk this metaphysical position they've vanquished the beast and now the doors are wide open to a utopia in which economists' critiques of their policy ideas have all been debunked. If mainstream economists are making a mistake in their analysis of the economy, you'll show that by engaging with their analysis of the economy not by engaging with their slipshod freelancing in metaphysics."

I think he is being naive here. The point of much economics is to justify a position that does not work economically, as the only alternative, for example, or the optimal solution.

TINA is often bolstered by the specious claim that every other approach leads to a socially unacceptable conclusion, like "socialism," or "totalitarianism." The focus on supply side is often justified on the basis of that this model of capitalism has generated a global system that has raised many out of poverty and produced the most advanced civilization to date, so let's leave well enough alone. These are specious arguments are successfully deployed to convine the "rabble" to vote against their own economic interests.

 A bevy of think tanks have been funded by acquisitors to justify rapacity in the name of science. They are the go-to sources for the media and their manufactured credibility is used to justify propaganda. So, yes, the blending of fact and value, positive and normative, and descriptive and prescriptive is important and significant socially, politically, and economically in convincing the unsuspecting that their leaders are acting on the best scientific knowledge rather than self-serving ideology.

US stock futures lower as Spain will miss targets


Surprise, surprise.  Background story at AP via Yahoo!

Now the morons will all be saying (cue The Prospector): "Spain's cheatin'!"; or "Spain's not productive!"; or "Spain's cheatin' on their taxes!"; "Spain's debasin'...", "Spain's blah, blah, blah..." etc.

MMT knows better. ;)

Michael Hudson — The Giant 21st Century Asset Grab


Read transcript of Paul Jay interview at Credit Writedowns
The Giant 21st Century Asset Grab
by Michael Hudson

Michael Husdon explains how the phase of Ponzi finance described by Minsky developed and is still in full swing, even after the crisis this resulted in.

Interestingly, it follows Ravi Batra's historical scenario. After WWII, military people (warriors) ran companies, based on organization and planning. After that, in the Sixties and Seventies, experts in production (intellectuals) ran companies based on knowledge, and beginning in the Eighties financial managers (acquisitors) took the reins and began to feed off prior gains parasitically, running companies down in the process. Instead of growing production, financial managers sought to increase economic rent.

Crowdfunding Set to Explode


Nearly $100 million in seed money was pledged last year to startups and creative projects through the crowdfunding platform Kickstarter.com–just one of many websites now dedicated to matching projects with people who have some means and desire to support them. What Kickstarter donors got in return were things like “thank you” credits in films, DVDs, tee-shirts, flowers, cookies, and concert tickets. Federal and state securities laws prohibit these startup operations from offering equity to their investors. The good feeling that comes from supporting innovation seems to be the main reward for many people who hand over cash to support the schemes of others online.
But what if there was potential for a financial return on these crowdsourced investments? If startups could offer stock to their small-stake supporters, some (including Amy Cortese in this New York Times Op-Ed) predict that the practice of crowdfunding would explode, opening up far more resources to entrepreneurs, spurring innovation, and creating jobs.
That’s exactly what the Entrepreneur Access to Capital Act (HR 2930) aims to achieve. The bill, which Forbes contributor Scott Edward Walker explained in detail here last month, has the support of President Obama and was passed by an overwhelming majority in the House in November, but has been hung up in the Senate ever since.
Portfolio.com and Reuters reported on Tuesday that Senate majority leader Harry Reid announced plans to push the legislation forward
Read the rest at Forbes
Crowdfunding Set to Explode with Passage of Entrepreneur Access to Capital Act
by Adrienne Burke
(h/t Scott Fullwiler via Twitter)

Sounds like a great idea, but what about the inevitable flood of scams? The SEC apparently thinks so, too.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Zero Hedge — Sean Corrigan Crucifies MMT


While hardly needing a full-on onslaught by an Austrian thinker, when even some fairly simplistic reductio ad abusrdum thought experiments should suffice (boosting global GDP by a few million percent simply by building adeath star comes to mind), Diapason's Sean Corrigan has decided to take MMT, also known as "Modern Monetary Theory", to the woodshed in his latest missive in a grammatical, syntaxic (replete with the usual 200+ word multi-clause sentences) and stylistic juggernaut, that only Corrigan is capable of. So sit back in that easy chair, grab your favorite bottle of rehypothecated Ouzo, and let the monetary hate wash through you.
Money, Macro and Marketsby Sean Corrigan of Diapason Commodities Management, and author of the excellent Santayana's Curse
Read it at Zero Hedge
Sean Corrigan Crucifies MMT
posted by Tyler Durden

Jeremy Grantham — "Your Grandchildren Have No Value (And Other Deficiencies of Capitalism)"


Jeremy Grantham is not pleased.

Read it at GMO Quarterly Letter
The Longest Quarterly Letter Ever
Investment Advice from Your Uncle Polonius
Your Grandchildren Have No Value (And Other Deficiencies of Capitalism)
Market Review
by Jeremy Grantham
(h/t Zero Hedge)

Post Keynesian Economists: A List by "Lord Keynes"


Just who exactly is a Post Keynesian economist? I will start a list below and update it as required. I have based this list partly on this interesting article and list here. I will include Modern Monetary Theorists as economists obviously related to Post Keynesians, and indeed at least one of the leading MMTers says explicitly that MMT emerged from Post Keynesianism.
Read it at Social Democracy for the 21st Century: A Post Keynesian Perspective
Post Keynesian Economists: A List
by Lord Keynes

Daniel Little — Value-free economics?


A recent volume by Vivian Walsh and Hilary Putnam, The End of Value-Free Economics, brings to a fine point a line of argument that has been brewing for fifteen years: is the logical positivist insistence on separating "fact-based" science from "value-based" ethics any longer a tenable one? Most particularly, are there now compelling reasons for declaring that mainstream economics needs to recognize that the distinction is wholly untenable? Is the zeal for insisting on "positive" economics now unsupportable? Should economists at last recognize that Lionel Robbins' strong exclusion of normative language from the science of economics both unjustified and unwise?  Walsh and Putnam argue that the answer to each of these questions is definitive: the strict dichotomy between fact and value in economics can no longer be supported.
Read it at Understanding Society
Value-free economics?
by Daniel Little

Natural gas is a bridge fuel to nowhere


Another major study finds confirms natural gas is a bridge fuel to nowhere
A must-read new study by climatologist Ken Caldeira and tech guru Nathan Myhrvold (!) makes clear the world’s only plausible hope to avert catastrophic temperature rise this century is aggressive deployment of zero-carbon technologies and conservation.
The Institute of Physics news release explains:
… technologies that offer only modest reductions in greenhouse gases, such as the use of natural gas and perhaps carbon capture and storage, cannot substantially reduce climate risk in the next 100 years.
Delaying the rollout of the technologies is not an option however; the risks of environmental harm will be much greater in the second half of the century and beyond if we continue to rely on coal-based technologies.
Read it at Climate Progress

Occupy & Tea Party Find Common Ground?


Watch it at Ampedstatus
Greedy Bastards Antidote: Occupy & Tea Party Find Common Ground? Dylan Ratigan Talks with David DeGraw & Mark Meckler, 100% United (Video)
Posted by David DeGraw

Winterspeak — Confused about MMR


Read it at Winterspeak.com
Confused about MMR
by Winterspeak

MMR — JKH On Saving And Sector Balances (WONKISH)


Read it at Modern Monetary Realism
JKH On Saving And Sector Balances (WONKISH)
by Cullen Roche

Clueless commentary about Japan sovereign debt



I’ve been hearing a lot of comments recently from the ranks of the VSP’s (Very Smart People, and I’m being massively facetious here) about the coming need for Japan to roll over $3 trillion in sovereign debt. They are saying it as if it were some giant tsunami rolling in rapidly off the ocean, headed toward the beach. And we—investors—are supposed to be feeling like a bunch of helpless, English tourists trapped on the island of Phuket, 20 minutes after a #10 on the Richter scale underwater earthquake just hit a couple of miles offshore.

Anyone who is saying this or warning of this is monumentally and completely ignorant about the monetary system.

Japan’s debt—all of it—is denominated in yen. Japan makes the yen. It controls ALL yen denominated accounts. The act of “rolling over debt” is merely an accounting procedure at the Bank of Japan (the Japanese central bank). When those securities reach maturity and come due, the Bank of Japan merely credits the reserve accounts of Japanese bond holders by $3 trillion and debits the securities accounts of those same bond holders. What just happened? Not much. It’s like your CD coming due at the bank. What happens there? The bank debits your CD (you no longer have it) and credits your checking account by the amount of the CD.

So is $3 trillion a big number?

Ha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So far this fiscal year (5 mos), the US Treasury rolled over or redeemed $2.6 trillion. Did the world come to an end? For all of 2011, the US Treasury rolled over $7 trillion. We’re all still here and so are the markets. Doing very well thank you very much.

Plain and simple: these people saying these things are clueless. Ignore them.


My Bulls & Bears appearance from last Saturday





Abbott & Costello work out S = I + (S - I)


Who knew they were also economic groundbreakers?

Fox News: Sec. Geithner in Legal Jeopardy?

Fox News report on possible legal problems for Treasury Secretary Geithner related his activities while at the FRBNY.  Shep and The Judge break it down.  H/T Mario.